Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens: Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

The Baltimore Ravens will look to extend their winning streak against NFC South teams to six games Sunday when they host the struggling Atlanta Falcons. The Ravens are 5-0 straight up (SU) and 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their past five games against NFC South opponents following a 48-17 rout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week as three-point road favorites.

Point spread: The Ravens opened as six-point favorites; the total was 49.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.6-22.8 Ravens

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons are a much better offensive team than they have shown in losing their last three games both SU and ATS, scoring progressively less points since routing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 56-14 on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. That win over the Bucs showed just how lethal Atlanta can be offensively when quarterback Matt Ryan is in sync with his receivers.

The low point for the Falcons came last week when they scored just one touchdown at home in a 27-13 loss to the Chicago Bears as three-point favorites. Atlanta is certainly capable of playing much better than it has the last three games, and this team should not be a touchdown underdog on the road here.

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

Baltimore improved to 4-1 ATS in its past five games against NFC South opponents after blowing away the Bucs last Sunday. The Ravens saw quarterback Joe Flacco throw five touchdown passes in the first half at Tampa Bay, including four in the first quarter, and they cruised from there without much of a challenge the rest of the way.

Flacco will now get to face a Falcons secondary that surrendered a season-high 381 passing yards to Chicago’s Jay Cutler last week. Atlanta’s defense has also given up an average of nearly 33 points per game during its three-game losing streak.

Smart pick

Just like last week against the Bucs, Baltimore is the better team on paper and this time gets to play at home instead of on the road. However, the location of the game is more critical for the Falcons, who have been a poor road team historically. Atlanta is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog and has also failed to cover seven of the past eight meetings with the Ravens.

In addition, the Falcons are 1-3 vs. the line in their last four road games against AFC North foes. Baltimore has won four of five both SU and ATS, failing to allow more than 21 points during that stretch while averaging almost 30. Look for the Ravens to hit that average in a double-digit victory.

Betting trends

• Atlanta is 3-6 SU in its last nine games when playing Baltimore.
• Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark; follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.