Texas A&M Aggies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: Betting Odds, Analysis, Prediction

The Texas A&M Aggies will try to break a two-game skid Saturday when they visit the Alabama Crimson Tide in a key SEC matchup. The Aggies have lost their last two games to Ole Miss and Mississippi State, but they have covered the spread in the past two meetings with Alabama, including last year’s 49-42 home loss as 8.5-point underdogs.

Point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 12-point favorites at Bryant-Denny Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

College football pick via Odds Shark computer: 40.2-22.7 Crimson Tide

Why the Texas A&M Aggies can cover the spread

Texas A&M is obviously not facing another team from the state of Mississippi here and was 5-0 before dropping two in a row. The Aggies were also underdogs in each of the previous two meetings with the Crimson Tide and played well in both of them behind former quarterback Johnny Manziel, winning the last road matchup 29-24 two years ago.

The Aggies now have a different quarterback under center in Kenny Hill, who won 52-28 at South Carolina in the season opener and has gone 2-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in three road starts. Hill threw for 401 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions last week in a 35-20 home loss to Ole Miss, and he has 365 passing yards or more in three straight games.

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

Alabama is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against SEC opponents and needs a strong finish to get back into the race for one of the four playoff spots that will determine the national champion. The Crimson Tide are coming off a 14-13 win at Arkansas last week, failing to cover as a nine-point favorite. But in their previous SEC home game before the bye week, they crushed Florida 42-21 as 14-point chalk.

Alabama’s defense has not given up more than 23 points in any game so far this season and faces a Texas A&M team that just posted a season-low point total. The Tide are also 5-2 ATS in their past seven games as a home favorite.

Smart Pick

The Aggies may be 2-0 ATS in the last two meetings with Alabama, but they are just 1-5 vs. the line in their past six road games against SEC opponents. They are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs and will visit a very good Alabama team that knows exactly what is at stake here. Lose, and the Crimson Tide are knocked out of the national title picture. Win, and the team could run the table with road games at Tennessee and LSU on deck in two of the next three weeks.

Because Texas A&M already has two losses, the team is likely already out of the national championship hunt. This is simply a bigger game for Alabama, and the Tide should roll over the Aggies.

Betting trends

• Texas A&M is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games.
• Alabama is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark; all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.