Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. TCU Horned Frogs: Betting Odds, Analysis, Prediction

The TCU Horned Frogs will look to end a five-game winning streak for the Oklahoma State Cowboys when they meet Saturday in a key Big 12 matchup. The Horned Frogs are coming off a tough 61-58 loss at Baylor last week and have dropped the last two meetings with Oklahoma State both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).

Point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as 10-point favorites at Amon G. Carter Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

College football pick via Odds Shark computer: 39.6-32.1 Horned Frogs

Why the Oklahoma State Cowboys can cover the spread

The Cowboys have been on a roll since losing to defending national champion Florida State 37-31 in the season opener. They will be playing just their second true road game of the season after winning 27-20 at Kansas last week. They failed to cover the spread as 20-point favorites.

However, four of the team’s other games during the winning streak have been decided by 10 points or more. Oklahoma State is 3-1 ATS in its last four games as a road underdog and 3-1 vs. the line in its past four road games against Big 12 opponents. The Cowboys will also be facing a TCU team that is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games against conference foes.

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

The Horned Frogs may find it difficult to get over last Saturday’s loss to the Bears since they blew a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter. They led 58-37 with 11:38 remaining but saw Baylor storm back with 24 unanswered points to close out the game. Still, TCU covered the seven-point spread and has gone 7-0 ATS in its last seven games dating back to last season.

Oklahoma State is not the same caliber of opponent as the Bears, and that close loss for the Horned Frogs may actually help give them some extra confidence in this one. TCU had won its previous four games, including a 37-33 win over Oklahoma two weeks ago as a 3.5-point home underdog.

Smart pick

Whoever drops this game will have two losses with the winner staying alive in the hunt for the Big 12 title. The Cowboys are still unbeaten in conference play at 3-0 but have a tough schedule ahead of them with four of their last six games away from home.

This meeting with the Horned Frogs begins that stretch, and all four road opponents are ranked within the Top 15. In fact, the only ranked opponent Oklahoma State has faced this year is the Seminoles in the season opener. A big step up in competition will hurt the Cowboys here in this spot as TCU covers its eighth straight game.

Betting trends

• Oklahoma State is 4-1 SU in its last five games on the road.
• TCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark; all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.