San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The San Francisco 49ers will try to beat the St. Louis Rams for the third straight time when they square off at the Edward Jones Dome on Monday Night Football. The 49ers swept last year’s two NFC West divisional matchups against the Rams, covering the spread as favorites both times, including a 35-11 victory at St. Louis in Week 4 as 3.5-point road chalk.

Point spread: The 49ers opened as four-point favorites; the total was 43.5 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 25.0-18.2 49ers

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

San Francisco has gone an amazing 7-1-1 against the spread in its last nine games as a road favorite, and one of those covers came versus the Rams last season.

The 49ers dominated that game on the ground, totalling 219 rushing yards on 40 carries, compared to 18 on 19 for St. Louis. San Francisco running back Frank Gore led the way with 153 yards on 20 carries and a touchdown, and he had 226 yards in the last two games, both wins.

The Rams have struggled to stop the run this season, giving up 152.5 yards per game on the ground. The 49ers should be able to exploit that weakness and run away with another road win in the series.

Why the Rams can cover the spread

St. Louis has been able to stay close in each of its last three games despite winning and covering only one of them. In their past two games, the Rams blew a 21-0 lead against the Dallas Cowboys in a 34-31 home loss and nearly completed a miraculous comeback from a 34-7 deficit in dropping a 34-28 decision on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles.

The good news for St. Louis fans is that quarterback Austin Davis has stepped in nicely as a third-string replacement, proving he can keep his team in just about any game.

Davis threw for 375 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Eagles, leading three scoring drives in a span of a little more than 10 minutes. San Francisco will not have too much tape of him to study, so the Rams may be able to ride his arm to a surprise victory in this spot.

Smart pick

Even though the 49ers have fared well as road favorites lately, they have struggled away from home against divisional opponents. San Francisco is 3-9 against the spread in its past 12 road games versus NFC West foes and 1-3 against the number in its past three trips to St. Louis. The Rams are 5-2 ATS in their past seven home games against divisional opponents and should be extra motivated to play well in one of two prime-time appearances this season.

Watch for St. Louis to continue opening up the offense for Davis and get a better defensive effort against a 49ers offense that has struggled to put the ball in the end zone the last couple of weeks. Take the Rams to pull off the upset win.

Trends

• San Francisco is 9-2-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing St. Louis.
• St. Louis is 7-16-2 ATS in its last 25 games when playing at home against San Francisco.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.