San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The San Diego Chargers might be the hottest team in the NFL out of the gate, with four wins in five games, and there's no doubt they've been the best team in the league to bet on, going a perfect 5-0 against the spread (ATS). The Chargers get a chance to continue their great start when they meet the hapless Oakland Raiders Sunday at the Coliseum.

Point spread: The Chargers opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 43 (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 32.8-9.4 Chargers

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers should be unbeaten this season, if not for giving away that fourth-quarter lead in a season-opening loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Last week, San Diego destroyed the New York Jets 31-0, easily covering the spread as seven-point chalk.

The Chargers, who had been having trouble running the ball this season, ran for 162 yards last week, limiting New York to just 151 total yards and winning time of possession by a lopsided 39-21 margin. In fact, San Diego leads the league in average time of possession, and that's a stat that's conducive to winning games and covering spreads in the NFL. Finally, the Chargers have taken four of the last five meetings in the rivalry with the Raiders.

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

The Raiders are off to an 0-4 start, although they've managed to go 2-2 ATS, and they have already dumped their head coach. But it's possible they got better by subtraction, because interim head coach Tony Sparano did a pretty good job a while back with Miami, taking a team that won one game one season to 11 wins and a division title the next.

Rookie quarterback Derek Carr is still dealing with the effects of an ankle sprain, so if he cannot go, the Raiders would turn to offseason addition Matt Schaub, who is 46-44 as a starter in the NFL. At least that would give Oakland more experience at that spot. Finally, the Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against San Diego.

Smart pick

Home dogs are just 9-10 ATS in the NFL this season, so Oakland won't find any solace in that spot. But Sparano may be able to ignite some life in the Raiders, at least over the short term. Schaub would probably be the better choice at quarterback, if winning immediately were the concern, and with the current situation, it might be. So the pick here goes with Oakland, plus the points.

Trends

• The total has gone under in five of San Diego's last seven games.
• Oakland is 4-17 straight up in its last 21 games when playing San Diego.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.