Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Miami Dolphins are 5-3 straight up and 7-1 against the spread the last eight times they've been lined as home underdogs. The 2-2 Dolphins fall into that spot this week as short home dogs against Aaron Rodgers and the 3-2 Green Bay Packers on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Packers opened as three-point favorites; the total was 49.5 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 25.9-22.7 Packers

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers have won two in a row both SU and ATS after drubbing the Minnesota Vikings last Thursday 42-10. Green Bay got a huge lift on offense from running back Eddie Lacy, who slashed his way for 105 yards on the ground, setting up some beautiful play action from Rodgers.

From the time the Packers trailed the Chicago Bears 17-14 two weeks ago to the time Minnesota scored a meaningless touchdown in the fourth quarter Thursday night, Green Bay went on a 66-0 run. Green Bay's defense only ranks 22nd overall, but it has done a decent job of utilizing the bend-don't-break philosophy, holding its last three foes to a total of 46 points.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins rebounded from back-to-back losses against the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs to rout the Oakland Raiders 38-14 in London two weeks ago. They outrushed Oakland 157-53, got 278 passing yards and two scores from quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and forced four turnovers. Miami then had last week off. 

The Dolphins rank 15th in total offense but fourth in rushing, at 142 yards per game. Meanwhile, the defense ranks seventh overall and 13th versus the run, allowing 107 yards per game. Running back Knowshon Moreno remains out of action with an elbow injury, but backup Lamar Miller is averaging 5.7 yards per carry on the season.

Smart pick

One problem with betting the Packers is they're such public favorites that they're often overrated on the point spread. Also, Green Bay is having trouble running the ball and stopping the run. Those traits are not conducive to winning games and covering spreads in the NFL. Meanwhile, Miami is outrushing foes by 35 yards per game this year, which bodes well considering teams that have outrushed their opponents are 52-23 ATS so far this season. 

The smart pick here goes with the Dolphins.

Trends

• Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing on the road against Miami.
• Miami is 2-4 SU in its last six games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.