New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The two teams tied for the AFC lead meet in Buffalo on Sunday as the Bills host the New England Patriots, who have won the division title in 11 of the last 13 years. The Patriots have also won 20 of the last 21 meetings with the Bills but have dropped seven of their past nine games against the spread as road favorites.

Point spread: The game opened as a pick'em; the total was 45. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 29.3-21.7 Patriots

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England shut up all the naysayers who questioned whether or not this team could still compete at a high level by handing the Cincinnati Bengals their first loss of the season, 43-17, on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots were coming off one of their most demoralizing losses in recent memory the previous Monday night but pulled together to beat the Bengals badly as 2.5-point home underdogs.

New England quarterback Tom Brady made it his mission to get his team a big win after taking some serious criticism, throwing for a season-high 292 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions against Cincinnati. When Brady is extra motivated and plays with a chip on his shoulder like he did last week, the Pats are nearly unbeatable.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo may have lost 20 of the last 21 meetings with New England, but the Bills have played extremely well at home lately against divisional opponents, going 6-0 ATS in the last six games. They have also won five of those six games straight up, the exception being a 23-21 loss to the Patriots in last year’s season opener that they covered as 10-point underdogs.

Buffalo is coming off a nice 17-14 comeback win on the road last week against the Detroit Lions with veteran quarterback Kyle Orton making his first start for the team. Orton was solid against the Lions, completing 30 of 43 passes for 308 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He seems to give the Bills an added dimension offensively that they were lacking with EJ Manuel under center.

Smart Pick

Taking the Patriots as favorites of a field goal or less against a divisional opponent seems too easy. However, New England was a 3.5-point favorite in the season opener on the road against the Miami Dolphins and was blown out in a 33-20 loss. Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home underdog and a better team than Miami at this point. While the Pats looked great on Sunday night, they looked terrible six days earlier, showing just how quickly things can turn for teams in this league. The Bills play divisional opponents tough at home, so look for them to pull off another win here.

Trends

• The total has gone UNDER in 11 of New England's last 16 games when playing on the road against Buffalo.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.