Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Indianapolis Colts will try to win their fourth straight game following an 0-2 start when they visit the Houston Texans in an AFC South matchup on Thursday Night Football. The Colts have won the last three meetings with the Texans both straight up and against the spread while the Texans have failed to cover their past three home games against divisional opponents.

Point spread: Colts opened as two-point favorites; the total was 46 (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 31.7-18.6 Colts

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indy is finally back on track and playing like the team everybody expected heading into this season. The Colts have covered the spread in four of their first five games but more importantly won their past three to pull into a tie atop the AFC South with Houston.

A lot of that has to do with quarterback Andrew Luck, who leads the NFL in passing yards with 1,617 and touchdowns with 14. Indianapolis has played well on the road against AFC South foes recently, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. The Colts are also 7-1 ATS in their past eight overall as road favorites.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans have dropped two of their last three games after starting 2-0, but they have still managed to cover the spread in four of five this season. Last week’s 20-17 road loss to the Dallas Cowboys in overtime is the perfect example of how this Houston team has played this year.

The Texans still have one of the best defenses in the NFL and held the Cowboys in check for most of the game, staying within striking distance until the very end. The only problem they have is they are limited offensively, although Houston running back Arian Foster busted out with his best game of the season with 157 yards and two touchdowns at Dallas.

Smart Pick

This is about as big as it gets for an early-season divisional matchup in primetime. These teams met at Reliant Stadium last year on Sunday Night Football, with Indianapolis rallying from a 21-3 deficit to beat the Texans 27-24. Luck connected with wide receiver T.Y. Hilton on three touchdown passes in the second half, frustrating the home team who was in the midst of a season-ending 14-game losing streak.

Houston is a better team this year, but so is Indy. The Colts are favored in this spot for a reason, and they are 9-1 SU in their past 10 as road chalk. Look for Indianapolis to start strong and beat the Texans for the fourth straight time both SU and ATS.

Trends

• The total has gone OVER in seven of Indianapolis's last eight games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in four of Houston's last five games at home

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.