TCU Horned Frogs vs. Baylor Bears Betting Odds: Analysis and Prediction

The only two unbeaten teams left in the Big 12 will clash on Saturday when the TCU Horned Frogs visit the Baylor Bears. The Horned Frogs are an impressive 6-1 against the spread in their last seven meetings with the Bears, who have won and covered their past 13 home games, including the last eight against Big 12 opponents.

Point spread: Bears opened as 11-point favorites at McLane Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 50.6-35.7 Bears

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

TCU continues to get a lack respect from oddsmakers, who have made the Horned Frogs double-digit road underdogs at Baylor despite their recent success in the series. The Bears won last season’s meeting 41-38 but failed to cover the 13.5-point spread and lost the previous home matchup with TCU, 49-21, two years ago as a six-point favorite.

In fact, Baylor has not beaten the Horned Frogs by more than three points since earning a 42-18 victory back in 1994. TCU has covered its past six dating back to last season, including three as an underdog in games decided by four points or less.

Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

There’s a good reason the Bears continue to be favored by double digits in games this year, and that’s because they have not won a game by less than 21 points. Baylor’s two closest losses were each decided by 21 points, and both still covered the spread.

The Bears beat Texas 28-7 on the road last week as 14-point favorites, which is the only time this season they have been favored by less than 20 points. Baylor’s offense is just so explosive and capable of scoring in bunches, making it difficult to set numbers on the team’s games, especially at home where they have a 13-game winning streak.

Smart Pick

The last loss for the Horned Frogs came at home against Baylor to close out last year. While they suffered through a disappointing 4-8 campaign in 2013, they still finished the season strong by covering their last two, which has carried over to this year.

TCU’s Gary Patterson remains one of the best coaches in the country and seems to know how to keep up with the Bears on the scoreboard. Patterson may not always beat his Baylor counterpart Art Briles, but he has done a great job hanging tough throughout their history of coaching against each other. For that reason, watch for the Horned Frogs to stay within striking distance yet again and at least remain undefeated against the spread this season.

Trends

• TCU is 2-5 straight up in its last seven games on the road.
• The total has gone over in eight of Baylor's last 11 games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds-tracker app.