North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Notre Dame Betting Odds: Analysis and Prediction

The North Carolina Tar Heels were supposed to contend for a division title in the ACC this season. Instead, they've been one of the bigger disappointments in college football so far and one of the worst bets, going 0-5 against the spread. Carolina now packs its bags for an ACC road trip to South Bend to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday afternoon.

Point spread: The Fighting Irish opened as 16-point favorites at Notre Dame Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 30.9-20.3 Fighting Irish

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels can cover the spread

The Heels started 2-0 this year, so it's not like they don't know how to win games. But after three straight losses, in which they gave up 154 points, it's become a tough task to come up with reasons to back them financially.

Carolina is averaging 36 points per game, led by dual-threat quarterback Marquise Williams, who has thrown for 1,000 yards and nine scores and has run for 240 yards and two more touchdowns. After falling behind big in their last two games, they've rallied and had chances to cover. They're also fairly healthy, which is good. Perhaps the Heels can live up to preseason expectations and give the Irish a battle Saturday.

Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can cover the spread

The Irish are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS this season. 

They beat Stanford 17-14 last week, winning outright as two-point home dogs. Notre Dame outgained the Cardinal 370-205 and outrushed them 129-47. The Irish harassed Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan into an 18-for-36 passing performance with two interceptions, and they got a game-winning touchdown pass from Everett Golson on a 4th-and-11 with a minute to go.

The Irish are now 15-1 SU and 10-5-1 ATS in games Golson has started at quarterback.

Smart Pick

Until North Carolina demonstrates it can stop somebody on defense, it cannot be considered a viable betting option. The Heels gave up 29 points to Liberty in the season opener, 70 to East Carolina and 50 to Clemson. And you can't cover spreads if you can't get your defense off the field. So the pick here goes with the Golden Domers, minus the points.

Trends

• North Carolina is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games on the road.
• Notre Dame is 5-0 SU in its last five games at home.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.