Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Odds: Analysis, Prediction

Alabama owns a seven-game winning streak in its rivalry with Arkansas, going 5-2 ATS, winning the last two games by identical scores of 52-0. But the Crimson Tide are only 1-5 ATS in their last six SEC road contests. Alabama is on the SEC road again this week, visiting the Razorbacks Saturday night in Fayetteville.

Point spread: Crimson Tide opened as nine-point favorites for the Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium encounter, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 40.5-22.2 Crimson Tide

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

The Tide are coming off a 23-17 loss at Ole Miss last week, so they'll probably be angry coming into this one. Alabama led the Rebs 14-3 at the half but gave up a Dak Prescott touchdown pass with three minutes to go to lose. The Tide lost last week despite out-gaining Ole Miss 399-323 and out-rushing the Rebs 168-72.

Alabama has out-gained every opponent this season by at least 73 yards and out-rushed each foe by at least 89 yards. On the season the Tide ranks third in the nation in both total defense and run defense, and, somewhat surprisingly, 10th in total offense.

Why the Arkansas Razorbacks can cover the spread

The Hogs are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS after losing at Texas A&M two weeks ago 35-28 in overtime but covering as nine-point underdogs. Arkansas led that game 28-14 into the fourth quarter but couldn't quite hang on. In the end the Razorbacks had out-rushed the Aggies 285-137 and won the time-of-possession battle by a 37-23 margin. For the season Arkansas has out-rushed opponents by a 317-139 yards-per-game margin, while quarterback Brandon Allen has compiled a 9/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The only game the Hogs didn't cover this year came in the opener against Auburn, when, after a 21-21 first half, they lost the second half 24-0.

Smart Pick

This will be an important test for Arkansas, and whether Bielema Ball can work in the SEC. The Hogs are also working off their bye week. But after losing last week Alabama might be seeing red heading into this one. So the pick here is with the Tide, on the road, giving 20 points less than it was in this spot last year.

Trends

• The total has gone OVER in five of Alabama's last seven games
• Arkansas is 2-4 ATS in its last six games when playing at home against Alabama

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.