Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Odds Analysis, Prediction

Auburn is 11-2 straight up and 8-5 against the spread in its last 13 games with Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs are coming off an impressive SEC victory over Texas A&M. Can the Tigers continue their recent domination of this series when the teams meet Saturday afternoon in Starkville? Or can Mississippi State knock off another SEC West foe?

Point spread: The Tigers opened as three-point favorites at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 38.8-27.4 Tigers

Why the Auburn Tigers can cover the spread

The defending SEC champion Tigers showed they're game for another run at another conference title with a 41-7 drubbing of LSU last week, easily covering the spread as seven-point favorites. Auburn outgained the other Tigers 566-280, racked up 298 yards on the ground and held LSU to an 0-for-13 effort on third downs.

The Auburn Tigers are averaging 268 yards rushing per game while holding foes to just 100 yards per game. Auburn also has no qualms about playing in hostile territory, going 4-0 ATS in its last four SEC conference road games.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

The Bulldogs are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS and 2-0 in SEC play after bombing Texas A&M last week 48-31. MSU spotted the Aggies the first touchdown of the game, then scored the next 28 points to take an insurmountable lead.

The Bulldogs racked up 559 yards of offense, 289 yards on the ground and got five total touchdowns from quarterback Dak Prescott, a new leader in the Heisman Trophy race. Mississippi State ranks 12th in the country in total offense and has outrushed foes so far by a 274-98 yards-per-game margin. Last year the Bulldogs lost to the Tigers on a late score 24-20 but covered the spread as six-point road dogs.

Smart Pick

Both teams are coming off big wins, so emotionally this matchup is about a wash. But Auburn owns an edge on defense, and Nick Marshall still runs the show. So the pick here goes with the visiting Tigers, giving the short spread.

Trends

• Auburn is 4-1 SU in its last five games on the road.
• Mississippi State is 5-0 SU in its last five games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.