Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Spread Analysis, Pick Prediction

After blowing a victory at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday, the 2-2 Pittsburgh Steelers will try to recover in time to avoid becoming the first team to lose to the winless Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. The Steelers are only 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games as favorites on the road, but the Jags are only 3-11-1 in their last 15 games as home underdogs.

Point spread: The Steelers opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 46.5 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 27.2-12.9 Steelers

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers basically gave away a game last week, losing at home to the Buccaneers on a score with seven seconds to go. Pittsburgh had a chance to run out the clock just before that, but a penalty and a poor punt helped give Tampa Bay good field position for its final drive.

The Steelers outgained the Bucs 416-350 and won the time-of-possession battle by a 34-26 margin, so they've now outgained three of their four opponents this season and outrushed the last two. In fact, after averaging just 86 yards per game on the ground last year, Pittsburgh is averaging 144 this year.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jags, while 0-4 both SU and ATS, have played well in parts of games this year. They led the Philadelphia Eagles in Philadelphia 17-0 at halftime before losing 34-17 in a game that was closer than the score might indicate. Last week, they led the San Diego Chargers in San Diego for almost the entire first half before eventually succumbing 33-14, missing the cover as 13-point dogs by a couple of fourth-quarter field goals.

Jacksonville outrushed the Chargers 85-42, and rookie quarterback Blake Bortles, in his first NFL start, led the Jags on two long touchdown drives in the second quarter, completing 29 of 37 passes on the day. If Jacksonville could just get a little help from its defense, it could keep this one close.

Smart Pick

Jacksonville can't run the ball (ranks 30th) or stop the run (ranks 25th), and that's not a good combination when trying to win games and cover spreads in the NFL. The Steelers, on the other hand, seem to have rediscovered the run with Le'Veon Bell. So far this year, teams that have outrushed their opponents are 40-20-1 ATS. So the smart money in this spot resides with Pittsburgh, minus the points.

Trends

• Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last five games on the road.
• Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last six games when playing Pittsburgh.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.