New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The San Diego Chargers have cashed in every time out this season, going 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread; the New York Jets haven't cashed in once yet, going 1-3 SU, 0-3-1 ATS. Can the Chargers stay perfect or will the Jets break through when the teams meet Sunday afternoon at Qualcomm Stadium?

Point spread: Chargers opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 43. (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 29.6-18.6 Chargers

Why the Jets can cover the spread

Following that season-opening victory over Oakland, in which a late Raiders score cost them a cover, the Jets have lost three games in a row. They led at Green Bay 21-3 but lost 31-24, earning only a push as seven-point dogs; they then lost at home to Chicago 27-19, then again at home to Detroit 24-17.

But all three of those losses came by just one score, and New York actually out-rushed all three of those opponents by an average of 55 yards per game. In fact, the Jets rank second in the league in rushing at 151 yards per game and lead the league in run defense, allowing just 63 yards per game. That's usually a good combination when trying to win games and cover spreads in the NFL.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers can't run the ball, but they don't seem to need to with quarterback Philip Rivers off to a great start to this season, almost willing this team into the end zone. San Diego opened with that loss at Arizona, a game it should have won. Since then, the Chargers have beaten the Super Bowl champion Seahawks, the Bills and the Jaguars, covering the spread each time out.

San Diego is only averaging 70 yards per game on the ground, but Rivers has been amazing, completing 70 percent of his passes for 8.4 yards per attempt, which is super, and a 9-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. And the San Diego defense ranks ninth overall and has allowed just 16 points per game.

Smart pick

The Chargers may be hot at the moment, but the lack of a running game will eventually come into play. Maybe this week, against a Jets team that can both run the ball and stop the run. So far this NFL season, teams that have won the ground battle are 40-20-1 ATS. So the pick here goes with New York, plus the points.

Trends

• The total has gone OVER in six of N.Y. Jets' last eight games on the road
• San Diego is 1-4 ATS in its last five games when playing at home against N.Y. Jets

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.