Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Kansas City Chiefs just enjoyed a Monday night romp over the New England Patriots, winning outright as three-point home underdogs. Now, the 2-2 Chiefs, 3-1 against the spread, hit the road on the short week for a game with the 2-2 San Francisco 49ers on Sunday afternoon in Santa Clara, California.

Point spread: The 49ers opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 45 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 30.8-29.8 49ers

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs showed what they're capable of Monday night, pounding the Patriots 41-14. They led 17-0 at the half and 27-0 before New England got on the board. They outrushed the Pats 207-75, won time of possession by a 36-24 margin and picked off Tom Brady twice.

From nearly the first snap, there was no question about the outcome of that game. Kansas City opened this season with a bad home loss to the Tennessee Titans but then gave the Denver Broncos a tough game in Denver, easily covering as a 13-point dog. The Chiefs then beat the Miami Dolphins in Miami as five-point dogs and manhandled New England.

The Chiefs also got 92 yards on the ground Monday from Jamaal Charles, who had gained just 23 yards through the first three games thanks to an ankle injury.

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

The 49ers are 2-2 both SU and ATS, but they would be 3-1 on both counts if not for the blown-lead loss to the Chicago Bears a couple of weeks ago. They followed that up by falling behind the Philadelphia Eagles last week 21-10 but rallied and shut out the Eagles from there for a 26-21 victory and a cover at minus-3.5.

The Niners ran for 218 yards Sunday and held the best running game in the league last year to just 22. They also won time of possession by a ridiculous 42-18 margin.

In fact, Philly's three scores came on a blocked punt, an interception return and a punt return. For the season, the 49ers rank seventh in rushing, at 139 yards per game, and second against the run, allowing just 70 yards per game.

Smart Pick

The Chiefs destroyed the Patriots on Monday night, but that just sets up the letdown factor for the play in this game. Since starting last season 9-0, KC has gone 4-8, which is hardly the mark of a dominant team.

The Niners, meanwhile, showed a spark at just the right time last week, staving off what could have been a three-game losing streak with a red-zone stop in the final minutes. So the pick here goes with San Francisco, minus the points.

Trends

• Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing San Francisco.
• The total has gone under in six of San Francisco's last seven games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.