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St. Louis Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 30, 2014

Philadelphia Eagles running back LeSean McCoy (25) runs against the San Francisco 49ers during the second half of an NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Sept. 28, 2014. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

The Philadelphia Eagles will look to rebound from their first loss of the season on Sunday when they host the St. Louis Rams. The Eagles still covered as seven-point underdogs in a 26-21 setback to the San Francisco 49ers on the road last week, and they are a remarkable 9-1-1 against the spread in the last 11 meetings with the Rams.

Point spread: Eagles opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 47.5Β (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 31.9-24.4 Eagles

Why the Rams can cover the spread

St. Louis is coming off a bye week and has gone 4-1 ATS in their last five road games under that scenario. The Rams had suffered a tough home loss to the Dallas Cowboys in their previous game, falling 34-31 after blowing a 21-0 lead. They should learn from that experience, and the bye could not have come at a better time.

This St. Louis team just needs to regroup and figure out how to play better defense with all of the talented players that helped keep them in games last season. The Rams won on the road in Week 2, holding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in check in a 19-17 victory.

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

Philadelphia has covered three of its four games this season and should have probably beaten the 49ers last week to improve to 4-0. Instead, the Eagles return home and will treat their first loss as a learning experience, knowing they need to keep their foot on the accelerator offensively after blowing a 21-10 lead in the first half at San Francisco. Ironically, Philly was a slow starter until last week, needing to rally back in the second half of both of the first two games.

The Eagles have yet to play a complete game, and this matchup with St. Louis should give them the perfect opportunity to do just that.

Smart Pick

The Rams have really struggled on the road against NFC East opponents, going 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games. They have also failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games as road underdogs. Offensively, St. Louis will not be able to keep up with Philadelphia, and the Eagles simply have too many weapons for the team to worry about defensively.

Philly running back LeSean McCoy has yet to break out with a monster game like he was known for last year when he led the NFL in rushing. McCoy and fellow running back Darren Sproles will give the Rams fits in this game, so watch for them to be the difference as the Eagles fly to a double-digit home victory.

Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of St. Louis's last eight games
  • Philadelphia is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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