Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Carolina Panthers have lost their way the last couple of weeks, losing back-to-back games to the Steelers and Ravens by a total of 46 points. However, this week 2-2 Carolina returns home, where it has gone 8-2 straight up and 7-2-1 against the spread in its last 10 contests, to host the defensively-challenged Chicago Bears Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Panthers opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 45.5 (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 24.1-18.6 Panthers

Why the Bears can cover the spread

The Bears, 2-2 both SU and ATS, are coming off a 38-17 home loss to Green Bay, missing on the spread as two-point home dogs, but that final score is a bit misleading. Chicago was denied a touchdown on the final play of the first half thanks to a bad camera angle.

Then, while driving to tie the game midway through the third quarter, a fluke Jay Cutler ricochet interception resulted in a two-score swing, totally killing the last of the Bears' momentum. In the end the Bears had outrushed the Packers 235-56 and won the time-of-possession battle by a 36-24 margin. Chicago has also shown it can win on the road, with its back-to-back victories at San Francisco and at the Jets a couple of weeks ago.

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers opened with an NFC South divisional road victory at Tampa Bay, then came home and beat Detroit, a win that looks even better now with the Lions off to a 3-1 start. Carolina then fell victim to 'national TV home game' syndrome against Pittsburgh, then last week fell behind Baltimore early on a fluke tipped-pass catch-and-run by former Panther Steve Smith, and never really recovered.

Offensively the running game has been hampered by injuries, but perhaps Cam Newton can get something going against a porous Bears pass defense. And while the Panthers defense ranks 23rd overall at the moment, it ranked second last year, so it could still come around.

Smart Pick

The Panthers are banged up big time in the offensive backfield, and as of this writing we're not sure who's going to carry the ball for them Sunday. The Bears, meanwhile, are banged up on defense, namely in the secondary. Aaron Rodgers and company exposed that sad fact. In a spot like this, while the Chicago offense looks near-lethal at moments, the pick should go with the better defense, and Carolina.

Trends

• Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last six games
• The total has gone UNDER in six of Carolina's last eight games at home

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.