Texas A&M Aggies vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Odds: Analysis and Prediction

The unbeaten Texas A&M Aggies will face their biggest test of the season when they visit the undefeated Mississippi State Bulldogs in a key SEC matchup Saturday. The Aggies rallied for a 35-28 overtime win against the Arkansas Razorbacks last week at home and have failed to cover the spread in four of their past five road games against SEC opponents.

Point spread: The Aggies opened as one-point favorites at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 51.0-35.2 Aggies

Why the Texas A&M Aggies can cover the spread

Texas A&M got its wake-up call against the Razorbacks, trailing 28-14 in the third quarter before scoring 21 unanswered points to earn the overtime victory. The Aggies came up just short of covering as 7.5-point favorites in that game, and they seem to focus better on the road this season.

They have covered the spread in both of their road games this season, including a 52-28 win at South Carolina in the season opener as nine-point underdogs. The other road game was a 58-6 victory at SMU as 35-point favorites two weeks ago. In the last meeting at Mississippi State, Texas A&M won 38-13 as a 6.5-point road favorite in 2012.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

This could be Mississippi State’s year, especially after the team ended a 14-game series losing streak against LSU with a 34-29 road victory two weeks ago. The Bulldogs beat the Tigers in that game as seven-point road underdogs to improve to 8-1 against the spread in their last nine overall.

They are also 3-1 ATS in their last four home games and 3-1 against the line this season, with the lone non-cover coming against UAB in a 47-34 home win as 29-point favorites. Mississippi State also covered last year’s meeting with the Aggies, which resulted in a 51-41 loss but an ATS win as a 19-point road underdog.

Smart pick

This game should come down to quarterback play, and the Bulldogs have the more experienced signal-caller in junior Dak Prescott, who played in last year’s game. Prescott has been the key to Mississippi State’s season so far, especially at LSU, where he threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 105 yards and another score.

While Texas A&M’s Kenny Hill has been great so far this year in replacing Johnny Manziel, this will be another huge test for him on the road. Hill had his coming-out party at South Carolina in the season opener, but the Bulldogs are a better team than the Gamecocks, and they picked off Manziel three times last season. Look for Hill to have his worst game of the season with Mississippi State pulling off the victory and cover.

Trends

• Texas A&M is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games.
• Mississippi State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games.

Note: All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates, and get the free odds tracker app.