Oklahoma Sooners vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Odds: Analysis and Prediction

The TCU Horned Frogs have hit some tough times since joining the Big 12 three seasons ago, but they are off to a 3-0 straight-up and against-the-spread start to this season. The Horned Frogs now begin what they hope is a winning Big 12 campaign when they host the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth, Texas.

Point spread: The Sooners opened as five-point favorites at Amon Carter Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 51.9-43.4 Sooners

Why the Oklahoma Sooners can cover the spread

The Sooners are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS following a 45-33 victory and cover at West Virginia two weeks ago. They had last week off. Oklahoma trailed the Mountaineers for most of the first half of that game but scored 28 of the next 31 points to pull away and eventually earn a cover as an eight-point favorite.

OU outrushed West Virginia 301-137, held the ball for almost 34 minutes and scored on a kickoff return. The Sooners had some holes to fill on offense coming into this season, but with nine starters back on defense, Oklahoma has allowed just 99 yards rushing per game so far. That defense also provided a cover in a win over Tennessee, returning an interception 100 yards for a score for the decisive tally.

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

The Frogs, with eight starters back on both sides of the ball from last year, look like they've got their best team since joining the Big 12. So far, they've beaten Samford, Minnesota and SMU, covering as favorites of 33, 17 and 31 points.

Beating the Mustangs at the moment doesn't mean much, but the Gophers just beat Michigan, and TCU outgained Minnesota 427-268. The Frogs have averaged 211 yards rushing so far while holding foes to just 92 yards per game on the ground. Last year, while going through a tough season, TCU gave Oklahoma a good game in Norman, losing 20-17 but covering as a 10-point dog.

Smart pick

This might be a good one, as the Frogs are trying to establish themselves as contenders in the Big 12. But home-field advantage is often overstated in college football. If this game were being played at Oklahoma, the Sooners would likely once again be favored by double digits. And OU hasn't had much trouble making money on the road lately, going 4-1 ATS in its last five games as road chalk and 3-0 ATS in its last three Big 12 road trips. So the pick here is with the Sooners, minus the points.

Trends

• Oklahoma is 2-4 ATS in its last six games when playing TCU.
• The total has gone over in six of TCU's last nine games at home.

Note: All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates and get the free odds tracker app.