Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Southern Cal Trojans: Odds, Analysis and Prediction

The USC Trojans will be out for revenge Saturday at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum when they host the Arizona State Sun Devils in a key Pac-12 South matchup.

The Trojans were embarrassed in a 62-41 loss at Arizona State last year as 3.5-point underdogs, prompting the dismissal of former head coach Lane Kiffin, but they covered the spread for the third time in four games this season in a 35-10 rout of Oregon State last week as seven-point home chalk.

Point spread: The Trojans opened as 10.5-point favorites at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 38.3-31.0 Trojans

Why the Arizona State Sun Devils can cover the spread

The Sun Devils are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their past five meetings with USC and have lost just one of those games by more than five points. Arizona State is 2-0 away from home this season, including a cover in a 58-23 victory at New Mexico as a 24.5-point favorite and a non-cover in a 38-24 win at Colorado as 16-point chalk.

The Sun Devils are coming off a rough 62-27 home loss to UCLA a week ago Thursday and have had some extra time off to think about how they can improve to get ready for the Trojans.

Why the Southern Cal Trojans can cover the spread

USC is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games against Pac-12 opponents and bounced back from a disappointing 37-31 road loss to Boston College as a 17-point favorite with a big win over the Beavers. The Trojans will likely be facing Arizona State backup quarterback Mike Bercovici with starter Taylor Kelly out indefinitely with a foot injury.

Bercovici struggled a bit against the Bruins last week with two interceptions, and USC quarterback Cody Kessler is coming off a solid game against Oregon State with 261 passing yards and two touchdowns. In the battle of quarterbacks, the Trojans have a definitive edge.

Smart Pick

The Sun Devils were shellacked by UCLA last week at home, and it will be interesting to see how that affects them on the road as they try to avoid a sweep by the Los Angeles schools. USC is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite while Arizona State is 1-3 ATS in its past four as a road underdog.

The Trojans were burned on the ground in their lone loss to Boston College, and the Sun Devils do not possess that same threat running the ball without Kelly in the lineup. Arizona State is clearly not the same team without him, and that showed against the Bruins. Look for USC to win this game by at least two touchdowns.

Trends

• The total has gone under in five of Arizona State's last six games when playing on the road against Southern Cal.
• Southern Cal is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games when playing at home against Arizona State.

Note: All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates, and get the free odds tracker app.