Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi Rebels Betting Odds Analysis and Prediction

Ole Miss is off to the start that it hoped for, winning its first four games, going 3-0-1 against the spread. The Rebels now get a chance to make some big noise when they host the Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday night in Oxford.

The Rebels have lost 10 in a row to Alabama. Can they snap that streak this week?

Point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 4.5-point favorites at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 47.7-29.5 Crimson Tide

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

The Tide is also 4-0 on the season, and while they're just 1-3 ATS, part of that has to do with the big spreads with which they've been burdened. Alabama outgained West Virginia by 145 yards but couldn't cover at minus-22; it outgained Southern Miss by 284 yards but couldn't cover at minus-47.

Finally, last time out, the Tide beat Florida 42-21, covering at minus-14. Alabama then had last week off. Alabama has beaten Ole Miss 10 times in a row, allowing an average of just 12 points per game, and has won the last three meetings by an average of 30 points per game.

Why the Mississippi Rebels can cover the spread

The Rebs just held Memphis to 104 total yards in a 24-3 victory, pushing the spread at minus-21. Ole Miss knew it would be pretty good on defense this year, with nine starters back on that unit from last season, and so far the Rebs have allowed just 34 points through four games.

Ole Miss is also averaging 496 yards per game on offense. The Rebs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games, and even though they've lost 10 in a row to Alabama, they've covered the spread in six of the last nine meetings.

Smart Pick

Ole Miss will have the home-field advantage for the biggest game in Oxford in a decade, but sometimes raucous emotion can actually work against a home team. How many times have we seen a team get sky-high for a big game at home on national TV only to fall flat on its face?

On the other side of this equation is Alabama, a national title contender, favored by less than a touchdown. That's where the smart money resides in this matchup.

Trends

• Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last five games when playing Mississippi.
• Mississippi is 5-0 SU in its last five games.

Note: All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted—check out Twitter for injury updates and line move updates and get the free odds tracker app.