NFL Picks Week 4: Updated Outlook on Sunday's Odds and Spreads

With 18 out of the 22 teams left to play in Week 4 sporting either 1-2 or 2-1 records, it's an awfully tough weekend to predict, and that is reflected in Las Vegas' odds. 

Three winless teams and one 3-0 squad—the Philadelphia Eagles—are on the slate, but everyone else can either improve or fall to .500 throughout Week 4. Early landscapes of each division will also help to be defined better once Monday night ends, and while no team wins a championship after the quarter of the season, getting off to a strong start is crucial. 

Here's a quick breakdown of all of the odds and spreads for this weekend's games, along with picks.

Matchup (Money Line)	Time (ET)	Spread	Prediction
Tennessee Titans (+246) at Indianapolis Colts (-274)	1 p.m.	IND (-9)	IND 28-16
Green Bay Packers (-115) at Chicago Bears (-105)	1 p.m.	GB (-1)	GB 24-17
Buffalo Bills (+153) at Houston Texans (-167)	1 p.m.	HOU (-3)	HOU 20-16
Carolina Panthers (+128) at Baltimore Ravens (-148)	1 p.m.	BAL (-3.5)	BAL 20-19
Detroit Lions (-125) at New York Jets (+105)	1 p.m.	DET (-1)	DET 30-14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+265) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-325)	1 p.m.	PIT (-9)	PIT 28-14
Miami Dolphins (-205) vs. Oakland Raiders (+173)	1 p.m.	MIA (-3.5)	MIA 20-17
Jacksonville Jaguars (+702) at San Diego Chargers (-948)	4:05 p.m.	SD (-14)	SD 33-14
Atlanta Falcons (-167) at Minnesota Vikings (+153)	4:25 p.m.	ATL (-3)	ATL 28-20
Philadelphia Eagles (+196) at San Francisco 49ers (-224)	4:25 p.m.	SF (-5)	SF 30-24
New Orleans Saints (-157) at Dallas Cowboys (+143)	8:30 p.m.	NO (-3)	DAL 28-27
New England Patriots (-200) at Kansas City Chiefs (+178)	8:30 p.m. (Mon.)	NE (-3)	NE 24-20

Note: All odds courtesy of Odds Shark, updated as of Sept. 26 at 4 p.m. ET

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-9)

The Titans and Colts will battle on Sunday to decide who will improve to .500 and keep pace with the Houston Texans in the AFC South. But it's safe to say these teams are feeling very different despite boasting identical records.

Andrew Luck's Indianapolis squad started out a 2014 season with high aspirations, but they were quickly tempered after close losses to the Broncos and Eagles to open the season. But as the schedule got easier, their play improved as they throttled the Jaguars 44-17 on the road in Week 3.

It's been quite the opposite for Tennessee. A surprise road upset over Kansas City in Week 1 got the Ken Whisenhunt-era off to a high-flying start, but the Titans have since lost their way on both sides of the ball. The combined score of their losses to the Cowboys and Bengals in Weeks 2 and 3 was 59-17.

Rob Foldy/Getty Images

While the Titans certainly deserve a 1-2 record with one dominant outing followed by two duds, the same can't be said for the Colts—who could very well be 3-0 if they finished a Week 1 comeback over the Broncos and held onto a late lead versus Philly.

“If you would have asked me what their record was I probably couldn’t even have told you," Whisenhunt said of the Colts, per the team's official site. "They look like a good football team to me, make a lot of plays on both sides of the ball. Got one of the best quarterbacks in the game. Playing there certainly is going to be a tremendous challenge for our team.”

To make matters worse for Tennessee, quarterback Jake Locker hasn't practiced all week and is listed as questionable according to The Tennessean's Jim Wyatt, who couldn't bring himself to believe Locker will play:

The Titans might be able to salvage some offensive success if they establish the run game early, but that's easier said than done against a divisional rival likely to get off to a strong start for the third straight week. Tennessee's defense impressed in Week 1, but there have been holes all over the secondary with cornerback Jason McCourty banged up and Blidi Wreh-Wilson struggling.

It will take a shocking performance from Charlie Whitehurst—or Locker, should he play—to keep the Titans in this one, and even then it's hard to bet against Andrew Luck late in games.

Prediction: Colts 28, Titans 16

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-14)

Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

It's one of the most lopsided lines you'll see all season, and a closer look might even indicate that it's a little generous in favor of the underdog.

The hapless 0-3 Jacksonville Jaguars travel to the west coast to face the San Diego Chargers on Sunday afternoon, who again have shocked the NFL with a strong start and have stood out against some of the league's best.

Philip Rivers' crew couldn't close out a Week 1 game against the Cardinals but bounced back to surprisingly beat the Super Bowl champion Seahawks in Week 2 and knocked off the then-unbeaten Bills last weekend 22-10. Serious injuries to top running backs Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead are being somewhat forgotten about thanks to Rivers' gunslinging success.

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The Jaguars were one of the NFL's most impressive teams through the opening 30 minutes of the season, leading the Eagles 17-0 at half of Week 1. Since then, they've been outscored 119-27—and that's only in two-and-a-half games.

And as Adam Schefter of ESPN noted, the Jaguars are going with rookie Blake Bortles under center in the game:

Bortles has shown flashes of the potential that made him the No. 3 overall pick, but Jaguars coaches aren't doing him any favors strolling him out there in front of a under-talented offensive line. To make matters worse, the Chargers are aggressive in rushing the passer and stacking the box. 

Even if the Jaguars force some early magic, it would be nothing short of a miracle if they could hold off the Chargers for 60 minutes. Eventually, Jacksonville's youth and San Diego's talent will shine through.

Prediction: Chargers 33, Jaguars 14

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