New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Betting Odds, Monday Night Pick

The New England Patriots are not the road warriors they once were, going just 2-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games as favorites away from home.

New England falls into that spot again this week when it visits Kansas City to take on the Chiefs Monday night at Arrowhead.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as three-point favorites, while the total was 45 at most sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report). 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 32.0-27.3 Patriots

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots are coming off a grind-it-out, 16-9 victory at home over Oakland last week, although they missed on the cover as 14-point chalk. But that's two games in a row, after a flat performance in its season opener at Miami, that New England has outgained and outrushed its opponent.

The Patriots missed a better chance at the cover last week as they had to settle for field goals twice after having 1st-and-goal inside the Raiders' five-yard line. New England is only averaging 301 yards per game on offense so far this season, but the Pats defense has allowed just 273 YPG, third-best in the league.

Their strange trend of road spread failures is due to reverse here, facing a small line.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs opened this season with losses to Tennessee and Denver, but they jumped up and bit the Dolphins in Miami last week, winning 34-15 straight up (SU) as five-point dogs on the road.

And after outgaining and outrushing the Broncos two weeks ago, KC did it again against the 'Fins, running for 174 yards and holding the ball for almost 34 minutes.

The Chiefs also got three touchdown passes from Alex Smith, with zero interceptions, which was welcome after his three-pick day in the season opener against the Titans.

Monday Night Smart Pick

The Chiefs got up for a nice road victory last week, but that only sets them up for a fade this week.

And with New England playing on the road, the line isn't as prohibitive as it might be were this game being played in Foxborough. So the pick here is with the Patriots, giving the short spread.

Trends

• New England is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing on the road against Kansas City.
• Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in its last five games at home.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.