Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Diego Chargers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The San Diego Chargers are having success proving their run to the playoffs last year was no fluke, beating the defending Super Bowl champs one week then traveling cross country to win a tough road contest all while covering the spread in three straight games.

The Bolts get a chance to move to 3-1 on the season when they host the winless Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Chargers opened as 13.5-point favorites at books monitored by Bleacher Report odds partner Odds Shark; the total was 44.5 (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 28.3-12.4 Chargers

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jags are 0-3 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). But on the opening weekend, they blew the cover at Philadelphia, giving up two late scores to miss the spread at plus-10 after playing a great first half and taking a 17-0 lead into the locker room on the defending NFC East champs.

Jacksonville has struggled since those first two quarters against the Eagles, but it's shaking things up by putting rookie Blake Bortles in at quarterback.

The rookie wide receiver combination of Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson has caught 19 balls for 340 yards and three scores, and if fellow rookie Marqise Lee, who missed last week's game with a sore hamstring, can go, the Jags might be able to move the ball through the air on the Chargers.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers proved their mettle by pulling a tough trick last week, avoiding a letdown after the upset of Seattle the week before. They went to Buffalo and beat the Bills 22-10 as three-point road dogs.

San Diego only ran for 85 yards on 37 carries last week, but Philip Rivers, an early candidate for MVP, hit on 18 of 25 throws, helping the Chargers win the time-of-possession battle by three minutes. And the defense held Buffalo to less than 300 yards of offense and one touchdown.

That Bolts defense also ranks among the best so far this season by holding foes to just 15-of-35 on third-down conversions.

Smart Pick

These teams just met 13 games ago, NFL time, last October, when the Chargers traveled three time zones East and beat the Jags in Jacksonville, 24-6, covering as eight-point road favorites. San Diego outrushed the Jags 158-78 and held the ball for over 37 minutes, basically dominating play that day.

But the Chargers, like many other NFL teams, often seem to play to the level of their competition. And if they do so Sunday, they will struggle to cover the spread. So the pick here is with underdog Jacksonville and the points.

Trends

• The total has gone over in seven of Jacksonville's last nine games on the road.
• San Diego is 5-0 ATS in its last five games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.