Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets: Betting Odds Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Detroit Lions have looked impressive so far at home this season but will be going for their first road win of the year when they visit the New York Jets Sunday.

The Jets will be playing their third straight opponent from the NFC North and have lost the last two both straight up and against the spread following a 27-19 loss to the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.

Point spread: This game opened as a pickem and has remained steady through Friday, while the total was 44.5 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 22.2-16.4 Lions

Why the Lions can cover the spread

The Lions look to be the most well-rounded team in the division this year, at least they have played like it so far. Detroit’s defense stifled Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers in a 19-7 home win last week, as he totaled just 162 passing yards and one touchdown.

Meanwhile, Lions QB Matthew Stafford got some help offensively from running back Reggie Bush, who rushed for 61 yards on 12 carries, including a 26-yard touchdown run to put the game away in the fourth quarter.

Stafford threw two interceptions in the victory and just needs to do a better job of limiting mistakes and not forcing the ball too much to All-Pro wide receiver Calvin Johnson.

Why the Jets can cover the spread

New York has had chances to win both of its previous two games against NFC North foes despite blowing a 21-3 lead against the Green Bay Packers and going down 14-0 in the first quarter to the Bears.

The Jets simply need to play more conservative and take advantage of their strong running game with Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson. They were not able to do so in either of those two losses because they were forced to come from behind late.

New York QB Geno Smith still played fairly well against Chicago with 316 passing yards, but the two interceptions really cost his team, especially the first one that was returned 45 yards for a touchdown in the first minute of the game. If Smith can play under control more and hand the ball off to his running backs, the Jets can win.

Smart pick

New York will have opportunities to pressure Stafford in this game, just like the Carolina Panthers did in handing Detroit a 24-7 road loss in Week 2. The Jets faced two mature signal-callers in Rodgers and Jay Cutler over the last two weeks, and Stafford is still not in that same category until he proves otherwise.

The Lions are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four road games, and they have also lost the last three meetings with New York. It’s hard to justify making Detroit a road favorite in this spot when you consider how poorly the team has played away from home recently.

For that reason, the Jets are the play despite what the computer thinks.

Trends

• The total has gone UNDER in six of Detroit's last nine games on the road
• N.Y. Jets are 5-2 SU in their last seven games at home

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.