NFL Picks Week 4: Top Underdog Odds, Money-Line Advice and Predictions

Week 4 might be one of the most aggravating slates of the season for NFL bettors in terms of toss-ups.

There are only two games currently on tap that feature no true favorite, but the same could be suggested of many other tight matchups that could go either way. A small amount of lopsided bets are thrown in there, but it's largely anyone's guess as to how many of Week 4's games will play out.

With so many of the league's teams mired in 2-1 or 1-2 records, it's tough to gauge where many of them stand. That is reflected in this weekend's odds.

But alongside this terrible struggle for bettors brings opportunity to win big if they can navigate the treacherous waters of picking apart these tough matchups. Let's get right to it and break down money lines, spreads and picks for every game.

Matchup (Money Line)	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Tennessee Titans (+246) at Indianapolis Colts (-274)	IND (-9)	Colts	Andrew Luck is still making up for his team's poor start, and the Titans are looking hapless on both ends. (IND 28-16)
Green Bay Packers (-115) at Chicago Bears (-105)	Even	Packers	See below.
Buffalo Bills (+153) at Houston Texans (-167)	HOU (-3)	Texans	EJ Manuel was sacked three times last week, and it will only get worse against J.J. Watt and Co. (HOU 20-16)
Carolina Panthers (+128) at Baltimore Ravens (-148)	BAL (-3)	Panthers	Carolina's defense will rebound after Week 3 flop, but only enough to keep it close. (BAL 20-19)
Detroit Lions (-125) at New York Jets (+105)	Even	Lions	New York's secondary is holding on for dear life, and will finally lose grip against Detroit's passing attack. (DET 30-14)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+265) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-325)	PIT (-9)	Steelers	Pittsburgh's offense is finding itself again. The Bucs can't stop a nose-bleed on defense. (PIT 28-14)
Miami Dolphins (-205) vs. Oakland Raiders (+173)	MIA (-3.5)	Dolphins	As bad as the Raiders have looked, Ryan Tannehill has been worse. Thankfully for him, the Dolphins have a much better defense. (MIA 20-14)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+702) at San Diego Chargers (-948)	SD (-14)	Chargers	It's one of the most lopsided lines you'll see all year, and very well could be a generous one for Jacksonville. (SD 33-14)
Atlanta Falcons (-167) at Minnesota Vikings (+153)	ATL (-3)	Falcons	The Falcons' passing attack will gash a poor Vikings secondary, and Teddy Bridgewater won't be able to keep up. (ATL 28-20)
Philadelphia Eagles (+196) at San Francisco 49ers (-224)	SF (-4.5)	49ers	See below.
New Orleans Saints (-157) at Dallas Cowboys (+143)	NO (-3)	Cowboys	The laughing-stock Dallas defense will make the plays when it counts, and DeMarco Murray will run wild—again. (DAL 28-27)
New England Patriots (-200) at Kansas City Chiefs (+178)	NE (-3)	Patriots	The Pats' offense is still working out the kinks, but that doesn't matter much with a stingy defense. (NE 24-20)

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of 4 p.m. ET, Sept. 25

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (Even)

No division truly takes shape after a quarter of the season, but Sunday's Week 4 affair between NFC North rivals Green Bay and Chicago will be a big early indicator.

Despite falling in their season opener at home, the Bears have made a statement since with victories over San Francisco and the New York Jets. Jay Cutler already has 750 yards and eight touchdowns through three games, and the defense has been more than a cut above last year's hapless unit.

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But while they return to Soldier Field sporting a 2-1 record, they'll welcome a 1-2 Packers squad that is desperate to turn things around. Other than a Week 2 comeback over the Jets, Green Bay has been outscored 55-23 in its two games this year.

With the division up in the air, Sunday's game is huge for the outlook of the NFC North as Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette illustrated:

While the Bears won't have any lost feeling of urgency this early in the season, there's no doubt Packers fans are concerned with the team's 1-2 start, prompting the following reaction from Aaron Rodgers, per SportsCenter:

Being held to seven points against the Lions—with one of the NFL's top quarterbacks and against a recently poor secondary—was concerning, but Detroit has surprised early in 2014 with the sixth-lowest passing yards given up.

It will be a different story against the Bears. They have also impressed in pass defense behind rookie cornerback Kyle Fuller, but they're far from healthy at safety as ESPN's Michael C. Wright noted. And they haven't faced a receiving corps quite as loaded as this one.

What's more, Cutler has traditionally struggled against his NFC North rival, ProFootballSpot.com's Brennen Rupp explained:

"

Since joining the Bears in 2009. Jay Cutler's regular season numbers against the Pack: 1-7 record. 10 TDS, 17 INTS. 1,614 yards. #Packers

— Brennen Rupp (@brennen_rupp) September 25, 2014"

There's no doubt the Packers secondary has a tall task ahead of them as well in shutting down Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. But Green Bay will make it a point to get after Cutler and stymie his ability to make an impact through the air.

On top of that, the Packers are going to come out and play desperate football. No matter what Rodgers tells the fans to do, there will be a sense of urgency surrounding this team that will allow them to get over the hump.

Prediction: Packers 24, Bears 17

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)

Speaking of desperate teams, the 49ers will play their second-ever regular-season game at Levi's Stadium looking for their first win in the new venue. And they weren't spared by the schedule-makers in the process.

San Francisco will host the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, who just keep finding ways to win. They're 3-0 despite giving up a grand total of 61 points over their last two games.

As for the 49ers, they look far from the NFC powerhouse they've proven to be in recent years. After letting the Bears pull off an incredible comeback two weeks ago, they fell 23-14 to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3.

Despite their early struggles, Eagles coach Chip Kelly came off impressed with his opponent per the team's official Twitter:

But if the 49ers want any chance of winning Sunday's game, they will either have to make their fourth-quarter woes a distant memory or simply build a large-enough lead against this formidable Eagles offense. Field Yates of ESPN explains:

The above tweet might strike fear in those betting for the 49ers, but it's important to remember that any statistic conjured so far is through just three games. Plus, it's just hard to envision San Francisco completely folding in the fourth after what happened in the Levi's Stadium debut.

Hitting a rough patch is nothing new for this 49ers team, but neither is bouncing back from one. Last year, the Niners had two losing streaks of two games, and both times they turned around to win at least their next five games.

Colin Kaepernick has struggled, but he should get back to success against the league's 30th-ranked pass defense. The Eagles won't go away, but it will be easier said than done completing the comeback against the Niners' defense. 

Prediction: 49ers 30, Eagles 24

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