Oregon State Beavers vs. Southern Cal Trojans Betting Odds Analysis, Prediction

The USC Trojans might have fire in their eyes as they try to bounce back after that debacle at Boston College a couple of weeks ago, but the Oregon State Beavers can be a tough foe in tough spots, as their 5-0 record against the spread in their last five Pac-12 road games shows.

USC will be a double-digit favorite when it takes the field Saturday night at the Coliseum against OSU.

Point spread: The Trojans opened as 13-point favorites at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum but it was bet down to -9, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. The total was 56, which would prove very low if the computer prediction is accurate. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 42.9-29.8 Trojans

Why the Oregon State Beavers can cover the spread

Oregon State is off to a 3-0 start to this season, with victories over Portland State, Hawaii and San Diego State. And while they couldn't cover as 32-point favorites over the Vikings, they should have covered at -10 over the Warriors, after leading that game 38-7.

Last week they covered at -10 over the Aztecs, winning 28-7. The Beavers held San Diego State to just 215 yards of offense and won the time-of-possession battle by a 35-25 margin.

Bigger picture, with betting lines based in part on reputation, Oregon State has covered the spread in five of the last seven meetings with USC, winning three of those contests straight up as underdogs.

Why the Southern Cal Trojans can cover the spread

The Trojans are 2-1 both SU and ATS, with wins/covers over Fresno State and Stanford but that 37-31 loss at Boston College two weeks ago as 17-point favorites. USC outgained the Bulldogs by almost 400 yards, covering as 19-point chalk, then held the Cardinal to 128 yards on the ground and forced two turnovers in winning straight up as a three-point dog.

QB Cody Kessler has completed 71 percent of his throws this year, with eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions, while RB Javorius Allen has rushed for 318 yards. Last year the Trojans beat the Beavers up in Corvallis 31-14, outrushing OSU 242-92, winning outright as five-point underdogs.

Smart Pick

While USC may have beaten Stanford it got outgained that day by 122 yards. Then the Trojans got outgained by Boston College by 169 yards. And while Southern Cal beat Oregon State last year, Beavers QB Sean Mannion threw three interceptions, two in the red zone. OSU also missed a short field goal that day.

In other words, that game should have been closer. So the pick in this spot is with the Beavers and the points.

Trends:

• Oregon State is 6-2 SU in its last eight games on the road
• Southern Cal is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing Oregon State
• USC 1-3 ATS last four meetings with Oregon State
• USC 8-3 ATS last 11 home games vs. Pac-12

Note: All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered first-hand unless otherwise noted - check out Twitter for injury updates and line move updates and get the free odds tracker app.