Florida State Seminoles vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack Betting Odds, Pick

Florida State is the defending national champion, but North Carolina State shouldn't have any fear of taking on the Seminoles, considering it has won two of the last four meetings and covered the spread in 11 of the last 13 matchups.

The Wolfpack will be big home dogs when they host FSU on Saturday afternoon in Raleigh.

Point spread: The Seminoles opened as 23-point favorites at Carter-Finley Stadium, but the spread was down to 18 points Thursday, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. The total was 58.5 points (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 44.4-25.9 Seminoles

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

The Seminoles survived a close encounter with Clemson last week without starting quarterback Jameis Winston, who served a one-game suspension for some more off-field antics. Backup QB Sean Maguire threw for 305 yards and one touchdown, a 74-yard connection with Rashad Greene that tied the score at 17-17 with six minutes to go.

The FSU defense did the rest, forcing a turnover and then stuffing the Tigers on 4th-and-1 in overtime, setting up the winning score from running back Karlos Williams. This week, the 'Noles figure to get Winston back, and that's good news for Florida State financial backers considering FSU is 16-0 straight up and 11-4-1 against the spread in games he's started.

Why the North Carolina State Wolfpack can cover the spread

North Carolina State is off to a 4-0 start in its second season under head coach Dave Doeren, already topping last year's win total of three. Sure, the schedule hasn't been too tough, but the last two victories have come convincingly—49-17 at South Florida, covering as field-goal favorites, and 42-0 over Presbyterian, covering at minus-40.

The Pack ran for 315 yards against the Bulls and 265 yards (on just 31 carries) against the Blue Hose. North Carolina State has also hit the 40-point mark three games in a row, so it might have enough on offense to keep this one close.

The Wolfpack have covered 11 of 13 matchups with FSU, so this spread shouldn’t scare them or their backers.

Smart Pick

As of this writing, Winston is expected to start this game, but with the way that guy and this program operate, things could change by Saturday. So this pick relies almost entirely upon his status. Last year, with Winston, Florida State jumped out to a 35-0 lead in the first quarter on North Carolina State.

And while that probably won't happen this time around, the 'Noles, who went 3-1 ATS as double-digit road chalk last year, are still the pick here, on the road, giving the points.

Trends

• Florida State is 4-2 ATS in its last six games on the road.
• North Carolina State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. Florida State.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates and get the free odds-tracker app.