Week 4 NFL Picks: Predictions on Vegas' Midweek Betting Odds and Lines

Week 4 is here, and 30 teams continue to fight over 12 playoff spots.

Two teams were purposefully omitted, folks. This time of year, there always seems to be a handful of teams we can write off thanks to rebuilds. The honors this year go to the Oakland Raiders and the Jacksonville Jaguars, unless Blake Bortles goes all Philip Rivers or something and Oakland, well, no. Just no.

The point is, parity is a very real thing at this stage of the season, which makes the lives of bettors quite difficult. Compounding the issue is the fact that Vegas' midweek lines can and will change at a moment's notice based on news, injuries and the like.

Let's examine each line and then zoom in on a few of this week's toughest midweek spreads.

NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
NY Giants at Washington (Thurs., Sept. 25)	WAS (-6)	NY Giants	New York's offense is finally clicking and gets to take advantage of a hobbled defense.
Miami at Oakland	MIA (-3.5)	Oakland	Quarterback controversy and a shaky offensive line? Oakland beats the spread at least.
Carolina at Baltimore	BAL (-2.5)	Carolina	Cam Newton can take advantage of a porous secondary enough to squeak out win.
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh	PIT (-8)	Tampa Bay	See analysis below.
Green Bay at Chicago	CHI (-1.5)	Green Bay	Chicago receivers continue to fight through injuries. Eddie Lacy will have no problems on the ground.
Buffalo at Houston	HOU (-3)	Buffalo	Sans Arian Foster, Houston is going to struggle against a strong Buffalo defense.
Tennessee at Indianapolis	IND (-6.5)	Indianapolis	See analysis below.
Detroit at NY Jets	PK	Detroit	A matchup of two elite run defenses defers to the team with the better quarterback. Does anything else really need said?
Jacksonville at San Diego	SD (-13.5)	Jacksonville	See analysis below.
Atlanta at Minnesota	ATL (-2.5)	Atlanta	Matt Ryan will have a strong day as his opposition starts a rookie under center.
Philadelphia at San Francisco	SF (-4.5)	San Francisco	At home, expect the San Francisco offense to have few issues with a shaky Philadelphia defense. Frank Gore and Co. can control this one.
New Orleans at Dallas	NO (-2.5)	Dallas	DeMarco Murray is in for another huge day against a miserable run defense.
New England at Kansas City (Mon., Sept. 29)	NE (-3.5)	New England	Tom Brady has been mediocre, but Kansas City struggles to even use the best players on the roster at times.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 10 p.m. ET, Sept. 23.

Breaking Down Toughest Spreads

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (-8)

USA TODAY Sports

Mike Glennon is very much a wild card. 

The Josh McCown experience in Tampa Bay seems to be over, as he was clearly a one-hit wonder under the guidance of Marc Trestman in Chicago. Glennon is the man under center now, and in a Week 3 loss to Atlanta, he went 17-of-24 for 121 yards and a touchdown.

Many people will argue that Glennon should have never lost his job in the first place after a promising rookie season. He gets a chance to land the Buccaneers their first win of the season in Pittsburgh, but he will have to do it against one of the NFL's better pass defenses.

Then again, quarterbacks have not exactly had much difficulty against Pittsburgh:

Week	Name	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
1	B. Hoyer (CLE)	18/30	222	1	0
2	J. Flacco (BAL)	21/29	166	2	0
3	C. Newton	24/35	250	1	0

Now, take into account that the Steelers lost corner Ike Taylor and linebackers Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones to injury last week. ESPN's Adam Schefter provides the grisly details:

In theory, Pittsburgh, which owns the league's top rushing mark with an average of 163.3 yards per game on the ground, will be able to control the tempo of the game.

But the Steelers are not so great at stopping the rush (No. 22 overall) and have already allowed an underperformer (Bernard Pierce) and a rookie (Terrance West) to rush for 96 yards or more.

If there is a bright spot for the Buccaneers, it is the ground game. Bobby Rainey is averaging 5.3 yards per carry for 197 yards so far, and the team figures to get Doug Martin back too. Add in a capable Glennon under center, who can hit big-bodied targets Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, and this one has the look of an upset outright. Pittsburgh is too hurt in key areas to keep its defense off the field.

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Steelers 21

Tennessee at Indianapolis (-6.5)

Rob Foldy/Getty Images

This is a concerning matchup.

Indianapolis looks great—except for that whole thing about the team's only win coming against Jacksonville. Tennessee is just as strange, as the team seemingly finds ways to lose games.

Andrew Luck already has 912 yards and nine scores through the air, but he now has to deal with a Titans pass defense that ranks No. 2 overall in the league. Led by elite corner Jason McCourty, who ranked as the No. 11 overall player at his position last year, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), the Titans shut down opposing passers with relative ease.

Kansas City's Alex Smith threw for 202 yards with a score and two picks against Tennessee. Tony Romo was held to 176 yards and a score. Andy Dalton posted 169 yards and a pick.

So why do the Titans keep losing games? Well, they seem to enjoy inflicting as much pain on themselves as possible. The team lost 110 yards on 12 flags in Week 1. Week 2 was better, with just five flags for 30 yards. Week 3 was a relapse, with 11 flags for 99 yards.

"The ones that I don't like and the ones that will stop are the personal fouls," coach Ken Whisenhunt said, per John Glennon of The Tennessean. "Those are the things that we have to get cleaned up. There are too many penalties. I don't like it. I made a point of that with our team today. That's one of the things we have to get corrected."

It is difficult to feel confident in the Titans given the circumstances, especially when the Colts seem to have finally found themselves a running game thanks to veteran Ahmad Bradshaw. Take this with a grain of salt, but he did manage 65 yards on just nine carries against Jacksonville last week for a 7.2 average.

Against a weak Titans defense in that regard (No. 24 overall), should the staff wake up and stop giving Trent Richardson totes to justify a mistake, the Colts should have no issues beating the spread by a hair.

Prediction: Colts 27, Titans 20

Jacksonville at San Diego (-13.5)

Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

About those Jaguars.

Rookie quarterback Blake Bortles is finally the starter, a move many people believe should have been made before the season (although Gus Bradley's stubbornness is admirable).

Bortles had himself an up-and-down day in relief of Chad Henne last week against the Colts, but he found his way to 223 yards and a pair of touchdowns and interceptions.

On short notice, there were certainly some encouraging flashes. Those in the know had only positive things to say, as captured by John Oehser of Jaguars.com:

Call it a trial by fire for Bortles in his first real start as his team hits the road to San Diego. Even though the Chargers rank in the middle of the pack in terms of pass defense, it does seem unlikely he will be able to produce enough if his defense continues to rank dead last against both the run and the pass.

The Chargers are without a No. 1 and No. 2 running back, due to injury, but with the way Rivers has played this season, a one-dimensional attack should get it done. Rivers has completed 72 percent of his passes or better in two games this year and recently torched the Seattle secondary for 284 yards and three touchdowns.

Still, a borderline two-touchdown spread does not feel right here. With Henne under center, perhaps. But Bortles' ability to get his team on the board multiple times, paired with a week of preparation as the starter, might just make this one closer than Vegas thinks.

Prediction: Chargers 30, Jaguars 23

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).