NFL Predictions Week 4: Upset Picks and Projections

The NFL upset train keeps right on rolling into the Week 4 station.

The Week 3 station offered plenty of upset picks for those brave enough to hop aboard. Opening favorites such as San Francisco, Miami, Carolina and the New York Jets took a dive, while heavy favorites—New England chief among them—bumbled their way to close wins.

This should in no way encourage bettors to go out and pick upset after upset, but a deep dive shows that more than a few of the week's matchups are ripe for the underdog to emerge on top.

After a glance at the full slate, let's highlight a few David-over-Goliath possibilities.

NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
NY Giants at Washington (Thurs., Sept. 25)	WAS (-6)	NY Giants	New York's offense is finally clicking and gets to take advantage of a hobbled defense.
Miami at Oakland	MIA (-3.5)	Oakland	See analysis below.
Carolina at Baltimore	BAL (-2.5)	Carolina	Cam Newton can take advantage of a porous secondary enough to squeak out win.
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh	PIT (-8)	Tampa Bay	Pittsburgh is down three key starters on defense and Mike Glennon has enough talent to use a strong cast of wideouts.
Green Bay at Chicago	CHI (-1.5)	Green Bay	Chicago receivers continue to fight through injuries. Eddie Lacy will have no problems on the ground.
Buffalo at Houston	HOU (-3)	Buffalo	Sans Arian Foster, Houston is going to struggle against a strong Buffalo defense.
Tennessee at Indianapolis	IND (-6.5)	Indianapolis	The Colts have discovered a running game at the right time against an elite pass defense.
Detroit at NY Jets	PK	Detroit	A matchup of two elite run defenses defers to the team with the better quarterback. Does anything else really need said?
Jacksonville at San Diego	SD (-13.5)	Jacksonville	Blake Bortles is a rookie, but he is no Chad Henne. San Diego is mediocre against the pass, suggesting Bortles can do just enough to beat a huge spread.
Atlanta at Minnesota	ATL (-2.5)	Atlanta	Matt Ryan will have a strong day as his opposition starts a rookie under center.
Philadelphia at San Francisco	SF (-4.5)	San Francisco	At home, expect the San Francisco offense to have few issues with a shaky Philadelphia defense. Frank Gore and Co. can control this one.
New Orleans at Dallas	NO (-2.5)	Dallas	See analysis below.
New England at Kansas City (Mon., Sept. 29)	NE (-3.5)	New England	Tom Brady has been mediocre, but Kansas City struggles to even use the best players on the roster at times.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 10 p.m. ET, Sept. 23.

Top Upset Picks

Miami (-3.5) at Oakland

Stew Milne/Associated Press

So the Miami Dolphins, a team that has lost two games in a row by exactly 19 points in each, hits the road to take on an Oakland Raiders squad that, while winless, gave New England all it could handle in Foxborough last week.

Nobody is suggesting recent trends should rule betting lines, but something seems off here. 

These are two teams heading in different directions. Miami started off hot by taking down New England (which may explain the line given the team's common opponent) but has since fallen flat on its face.

The offensive line, completely new after last year's allowed Ryan Tannehill to be the most-sacked quarterback in the NFL, has simply regressed. After allowing just one sack in the win, the line has allowed four sacks in each of its last two games.

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

That's horrible news on the road against an Oakland defense that features talented rushers such as Justin Tuck, Antonio Smith and Khalil Mack—all parts of a unit that has already generated 20 quarterback hurries, six hits and five sacks, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Not to mention the whole "Miami may bench Tannehill" narrative.

Now look at Oakland, a team that went to New England last week in a 16-9 loss and held Tom Brady to 234 yards and a score, and permitted just 76 rushing yards. The offense is miserable and the entire team seems to be injured, but rookie quarterback Derek Carr appears to be coming along at a nice pace given the circumstances.

Oakland's ability to generate pressure consistently, which certainly plays a role in the top-five ranking against the pass (183.3 yards allowed per game), bodes well for the team's chances against an opponent with a sudden (perhaps manufactured for "motivation") quarterback controversy.

Oakland gets the win in London in a defensive battle.

Prediction: Raiders 17, Dolphins 14

New Orleans (-2.5) at Dallas

The general consensus seems to be that when the New Orleans Saints visit the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, the visitor will emerge with a win.

Katherine Terrell of NOLA.com explains this well:

It makes sense. Drew Brees and the Saints lost two very winnable games to start the season before taking down Minnesota. The Cowboys lost their openers before moving on to beat up on inferior opposition.

Both have rushing attacks that rank in the top six, and both have top-16 rush defenses. 

For Dallas, revenge is on the mind after losing 49-17 in New Orleans last season on the Sunday night broadcast. Cornerback Orlando Scandrick explained that his team has had this date circled for quite some time, per ESPN.com's Todd Archer: 

"

Guys have got to dig down deep and remember that feeling walking out of the Superdome last year. They embarrassed us. The team embarrassed us. They beat us in every phase of the game. Kicking, offense, defense, coaching, they beat us. They embarrassed us. We’ve got to figure out a way to come out and prepare and be ready to win.

"

The catalyst for the explosive Dallas offense to this point has been running back DeMarco Murray, who has 385 yards and three scores on a stellar 5.1 per-carry average.

That certainly bodes well for Dallas in all phases. The Saints may rank No. 10 overall against the run with an average of 101.3 yards allowed per game, but look at their opponents so far—Atlanta, Cleveland and now Minnesota are not exactly known for rushing the ball in the first place.

An ability to control the pace of the game via the ground will in turn allow Tony Romo—who in the past two weeks on the road has sliced up top-five pass defenses in Tennessee and St. Louis to the tune of 393 yards and three touchdowns to one interception—to win the game with his arm rather comfortably.

Prediction: Cowboys 28, Saints 20

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).