Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

Cincinnati continued its recent money-making ways at home last week with a victory and cover over Atlanta.

The 2-0 Bengals, now 10-1 both straight up and against the spread in their last 11 games at Paul Brown Stadium, look to extend that run when they host 1-1 Tennessee on Sunday afternoon.

But these Titans have been a solid bet when hitting the road against teams from the AFC North, and they have already won once this year as a road dog (at Kansas City).

Point spread: Bengals opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 43.5 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 32.9-21.1 Bengals

Why the Titans can cover the spread

The Titans are 1-1 both SU and ATS. They already have one road victory over a playoff team in the opening weekend at Kansas City and a letdown loss last week at home to Dallas. Tennessee dominated KC, winning the ground battle by a 162-67 margin, holding the ball for almost 38 minutes and intercepting Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith three times.

Last week the Titans got outplayed by the Cowboys but only trailed by one score late into the third quarter. Tennessee QB Jake Locker has completed 60 percent of his throws so far, and running back Shonn Greene has averaged 5.5 yards per carry, albeit on only 20 carries. If the Titans can give Greene the ball 20 times Sunday and get that kind of production, they could be right in this one.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals are off to a 2-0 start both SU and ATS, with a win at Baltimore as a one-point road dog and a 24-10 home victory over Atlanta, covering as five-point favorites. Cincy led the Ravens basically all day long, holding the Baltimore offense to four punts, two turnovers, a missed field and a stop on downs on its first eight possessions.

Things got a little crazy at the end of that game, but the Bengals defense came up big at the end with two straight sacks. Last week Cincy outrushed the Falcons 170-97, held the ball for 33 minutes and picked off Matt Ryan three times. That's how you cover spreads.

Smart Pick

The Bengals have made the playoffs three seasons in a row, and they're off to an excellent start in their quest for a fourth straight postseason appearance. And they're such a good betting play right now at home, in part because they're never favored by too much.

In going a perfect 8-0 both SU and ATS at Paul Brown Stadium last year, they were favored by more than seven points just once and covered that game. So the pick here is with Cincy, minus the points, as the computer predicts a 12-point margin of victory.

Trends

• Tennessee is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games.
• The total has gone under in six of Cincinnati's last seven games at home vs. Tennessee.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.