San Diego Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Buffalo Bills are one of seven unbeaten teams remaining in the NFL and will try to improve to 3-0 for the first time since 2011 when they host the San Diego Chargers on Sunday.

The Bills are coming off a 29-10 rout of the Miami Dolphins last week as 1.5-point home favorites, while the Chargers upset the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks 30-21 as 4.5-point home underdogs.

Point spread: The Chargers opened as slight one-point favorites; the total was 44. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 25.9-23.1 Chargers

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

San Diego could have sulked after blowing an early lead and losing the season opener 18-17 to the Arizona Cardinals on the road. With the Seahawks visiting off a huge victory to start the year, it would have been understandable to see the Chargers lose. But they came to play and then beat Seattle, as this team looks fearless at times.

San Diego is on quite a roll vs. the number, going 7-1 against the spread in its last eight games. The Chargers are also 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and should be relieved to get out of the Southern California heat without having to worry about playing at Buffalo in the cold weather of November or December.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo’s confidence could not be much higher heading into Week 3, and rightfully so. This team has played well through the first two games, both offensively and defensively and even on special teams. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home favorites and absolutely dominated the Dolphins last week.

While Buffalo second-year quarterback EJ Manuel is not blowing anyone away with his play, he has been efficient and only has one interception, which came in the team’s 23-20 overtime win at Chicago in the season opener.

As long as the team’s running game remains strong behind C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, Buffalo will continue to be worth backing.

Smart Pick

This is a tough game to handicap, as both teams have shown a lot of poise early on this season. The Bills have won five of their last six games against AFC West opponents though, and they seem to be on a mission right now to stay atop the division.

Speaking of which, San Diego is only 3-11 ATS in its past 14 games vs. AFC East foes and will be traveling cross-country to play an early game on Sunday. While the Chargers get up for teams like the Seahawks or Denver Broncos, they also have a tendency to underestimate opponents like they did against the Cardinals in Week 1.

Keep betting the Bills while they’re hot, especially at home against West Coast teams like San Diego.

Trends

• San Diego is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games
• Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home favorites
• Buffalo is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Diego

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark, follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.