South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Odds Analysis, Pick

South Carolina has beaten the Vanderbilt Commodores five times in a row, but Vandy has covered the spread in five of the last seven meetings with the Gamecocks.

The SEC East rivals hook up once again when the Commodores host the Ol' Ball Coach and his boys on Saturday afternoon in Nashville.

Point spread: The Gamecocks opened as 20.5-point favorites at Vanderbilt Stadium, with a total of 54 points, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 46.8-31.2 Gamecocks

Why the South Carolina Gamecocks can cover the spread

The Gamecocks are 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS this season, following a season-opening loss to Texas A&M and wins over East Carolina and Georgia. South Carolina got embarrassed by the Aggies, losing 52-28 at home, giving up 680 yards of A&M offense, losing outright as 10-point favorites.

But the Gamecocks rebounded to beat the Pirates 33-23, outrushing EC 175-132, holding the ball for over 36 minutes. And last week South Carolina pulled a 38-35 upset over the Bulldogs, winning outright as six-point home dogs. New starting QB Dylan Thompson has completed 61 percent of his passes so far, with eight TDs and three INTs, and running backs Mike Davis and Brandon Wilds have combined to rush for 370 yards already.

They have won six of seven visits to Vandy, but the spread keeps growing (up to 22 points by Wednesday).

Why the Vanderbilt Commodores can cover the spread

The Commodores are 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS as they ease their way out of the grasp of the now-departed Coach Franklin. Vandy opened with a home loss to Temple, then opened SEC play with a home loss to Ole Miss.

But the Commodores got in the win column last week with a come-from-behind victory over UMass 34-31. Vandy trailed 31-20 into the fourth quarter, but got a big play on a blocked punt and later scored with a minute to go for the first victory of the Coach Mason era.

The Commodores will go through a learning curve with the new coach and his new systems, but they're three games into that process, so they should be making some progress.

Smart Pick

South Carolina returned 14 starters from a team that went 11-2 last year, while Vandy only had 10 starters back from a team that went 9-4 last season. And while the Commodores kept the Gamecocks within 10 points in last year's meeting, they'll be hard-pressed to do that this week.

So the pick here is with South Carolina, minus the points.

Trends

• South Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last seven games when playing on the road against Vanderbilt.
• Vanderbilt is 6-2 SU in its last eight games.

Note: All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered first-hand unless otherwise noted—check out Twitter for injury updates and line move updates and get the free odds tracker app.