Oklahoma Sooners vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Odds Analysis, Pick

The Oklahoma Sooners have cruised to a 3-0 record so far this season but will face a tough test on Saturday when they visit the West Virginia Mountaineers in a Big 12 battle.

The Sooners have struggled against the Mountaineers since they joined the conference, barely winning a pair of games over the past couple years and failing to cover the spread as double-digit favorites both times.

Point spread: The Sooners opened as 11-point favorites at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium, but bettors had pounded the line down to seven points by Wednesday, when the total was 62, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 40.4-35.1 Sooners

Why the Oklahoma Sooners can cover the spread

Oklahoma is a different team than the one that was lucky to come away with wins against West Virginia each of the last two years, easily covering the spread in beating Tennessee (34-10 as 21-point favorites) and Tulsa (52-7 as 24-point chalk) the past two weeks.

The Sooners need to carry that momentum forward into Morgantown, which is not an easy place to play, as they found out in a 50-49 win there two years ago.

But Oklahoma is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games overall, 4-1 versus the line in its past five against Big 12 opponents and 5-2 ATS the last seven times as a road favorite, giving the team an edge.

Why the West Virginia Mountaineers can cover the spread

The Mountaineers are 3-0 ATS this season and have built some confidence in themselves since falling to Alabama 33-23 in the season opener. They are coming off a 40-37 victory at Maryland as three-point underdogs behind a monster performance from quarterback Clint Trickett, who completed 37 of 49 passes for a career-high 511 yards and four touchdowns.

The Florida State transfer has given West Virginia a boost and could definitely keep his team within the number against the Sooners for the third year in a row. The key will be Oklahoma’s defense, because if the Mountaineers can start well and score some points early on, they may even pull off the upset.

Smart Pick

Asking the Sooners to cover double digits for the third straight year in this series and second time at West Virginia will be a tall order. They can brag about beating an SEC team last week in Tennessee 34-10, but the Volunteers are not exactly the cream of the crop in that power conference.

The Mountaineers have to overcome a couple trends in favor of Oklahoma, as they are just 1-6 straight-up and ATS in their last seven games against Big 12 opponents and 0-3 SU and ATS in their past three at home versus conference foes.

However, this West Virginia team with Trickett under center seems different, poised to cover its fourth game in a row and quite possibly shock the Sooners.

Trends

• Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games
• West Virginia is 8-15-1 ATS in its last 24 games at home

Note: All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted—check out Twitter for injury updates and line move updates and get the free odds tracker app.