Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos: Betting Odds, Analysis and Prediction

The Kansas City Chiefs picked up where they left off last year in a season-opening home loss to Tennessee and will look to turn things around in a key AFC West matchup with the Denver Broncos Sunday.

The Chiefs were blown out by the Titans 26-10 at Arrowhead Stadium last week, and now, they visit a Denver team that has won the last four meetings, covering each of the past three.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as 12.5-point favorites, and the line held steady throughout the week; the total was 51 (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 34.3-31.8 Denver

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City stayed within 10 points of the Broncos in both meetings last year and has the ability offensively to get back on track. This is a team that scored 44 points at Indianapolis in a wild-card playoff game back in January and still lost.

Even when the Chiefs struggled down the stretch last season, going 2-5 straight up (SU) and 3-4 against the spread (ATS), they were able to average nearly 31 points per game, totalling a combined 101 points in road wins at Washington and Oakland.

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid will figure out a way to right the ship, and oddsmakers have made this number too big based on just one bad game.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver has made a bad habit of playing great in the first half and then letting opponents back in the game. This has carried over from last season and was evident in last week’s 31-24 win over the Colts that fell just short of covering the 8.5-point closing line.

When Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning is on a mission and gets in a rhythm, there is nobody better at running up the score. When Manning threw three consecutive touchdown passes to tight end Julius Thomas in the second quarter to give his team a 24-7 halftime lead, Denver backers had to feel good.

The Broncos just need to play better in the second half against teams, which is something they were able to do twice last year against the Chiefs in outscoring them both times after the intermission. The Chiefs have lost 10 of 12 divisional games over the past few seasons.

Smart Pick

Kansas City is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games against AFC West opponents, including two failed covers against Denver last year. Until the Chiefs show they have busted their slump that is still lingering from last year’s fade down the stretch, it’s difficult to make a case for them here.

The Broncos are quite simply a much better team at this point, regardless of how they played in the second half against an Indy team that also happened to knock KC out of the playoffs last season. Denver failed to cover consecutive games only once last season when it dropped three in a row; otherwise, the team bounced back each time.

Bet the Broncos to do that here with a big win, but beware the backdoor cover. The computer feared the backdoor cover last week against the Colts, and it fears it again with its 34-31 prediction.

Trends

• The Chiefs are 4-8 ATS, 2-10 SU in their last 12 games against the AFC West.
• Denver is 5-1 SU in its last six games when playing Kansas City.
• The UNDER is 8-2-1 the past 11 times KC has been a double-digit dog.
• Denver is 7-3 ATS in its past 10 as double-digit chalk.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.