Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers: Betting Odds Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Detroit Lions will look to build on a strong Week 1 performance on Monday Night Football when they visit the Carolina Panthers, who are expected to have starting quarterback Cam Newton back from a rib injury.

The Lions are coming off a 35-14 rout of the New York Giants at home but will be facing a stingy Carolina defense that has helped the total go UNDER in 10 of the last 11 games for the Panthers.

The Lions have dominated betting against the Panthers in recent years, but the computer likes Carolina.

Point spread: The Panthers opened as one-point favorites, but the line had crept to -2.5 by Thursday; the total was 43.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 25.9-21 Panthers

Why the Lions can cover the spread

Detroit’s offense is as good as just about any other team's offense in the NFL, and last week’s victory against the Giants proved its potency. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford played an outstanding game with 346 passing yards, including 149 and two touchdowns to All-Pro wide receiver Calvin Johnson in the first quarter alone.

Carolina got a huge break last week in facing an inept Tampa Bay offense, so big that the Panthers did not even feel the need to play Newton. That will not be the case here, as Detroit is capable of scoring on any given possession and got off to a strong start a year ago, going 3-1 straight up and against the spread in the team’s first four games.

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

Carolina’s defense flexed its muscles last week in a 20-14 victory at Tampa Bay, allowing Newton to rest for the season opener. The Panthers did not do anything fancy offensively against the Bucs and did not need to with backup QB Derek Anderson under center.

Anderson was solid, throwing for 230 yards with two touchdowns, and most importantly, he did not make any mistakes. Getting Newton back can only help Carolina’s offense, especially with his mobility, which can allow him to avoid pressure from the Lions, something New York’s Eli Manning was unable to accomplish.

The Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven home games, and the crowd should be pumped to see Newton and the rest of the defending NFC South champs back in Charlotte.

Smart Pick

The Lions looked great in winning last year’s season opener at home, too, before facing a tough defense at Arizona the following week and losing as small road favorites.

Detroit is also 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three road games and 0-4 SU and ATS in the past four games vs. NFC South opponents, making a victory at Carolina unlikely when considering those trends. The Panthers remain one of the best defensive teams in the league and served notice last week in Tampa that rumors of their demise were greatly exaggerated.

Like the Seattle Seahawks showed last year, defense wins championships, and that will be the difference in shutting down the Lions.

Trends

• Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing Carolina.
• Lions are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three road games.
• Lions are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games vs. NFC South.
• Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.