Week 1 NFL Picks: Examining the Trends and Line Movements

Thursday night’s matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers was the perfect way to start the 2014 NFL regular season, and fans have already turned their attention to Sunday and Monday’s games and which teams are being picked to win.

With marquee matchups like New Orleans vs. Atlanta, Indianapolis vs. Denver and Cincinnati vs. Baltimore, there is no better way to start the season than with a schedule full of memorable games.

Here are the picks for Week 1 and a breakdown of how the line has moved over the last several days.

Away	Home	Time (ET)	Prediction
New Orleans (-2.5)	Atlanta	1 p.m.	31-21 NO
Cincinnati	Baltimore (EVEN)	1 p.m.	28-17 CIN
Buffalo	Chicago (-7.5)	1 p.m.	34-20 CHI
Washington	Houston (-3)	1 p.m.	27-23 HOU
Tennessee	Kansas City (-3)	1 p.m	30-17 KC
New England (-4)	Miami	1 p.m.	37-21 NE
Oakland	NY Jets (-5.5)	1 p.m.	20-10 NYJ
Jacksonville	Philadelphia (-11)	1 p.m.	33-16 PHI
Cleveland	Pittsburgh (-7)	1 p.m.	30-13 PIT
Minnesota	St. Louis (-3)	1 p.m.	27-20 MIN
San Francisco (-4)	Dallas	4:25 p.m.	31-24 DAL
Carolina	Tampa Bay (-3)	4:25 p.m.	24-17 CAR
Indianapolis	Denver (-9)	8:30 p.m.	38-20 DEN
NY Giants	Detroit (-5.5)	7:10 p.m. (Mon.)	27-21 DET
San Diego	Arizona (-2.5)	10:20 p.m. (Mon.)	34-21 SD

*Odds via OddsShark.com.

Examining the Trends and Line Movements

Betting on football is one of the biggest parts of the fascination with the sport in the United States, and one of the major keys to finding success is deciphering the latest trends and the movement of the lines.

The biggest note from the Week 1 odds is the matchup between Tampa Bay and Carolina and how the injury to Cam Newton’s ribs, via Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer, has influenced the betting. The line started on Monday at even between the teams, but it increased to one point in favor of the Buccaneers when Newton missed practice.

As of this morning, Tampa Bay had moved all the way to a three-point favorite. This is a big swing at the last moment and should have bettors taking note. The Panthers are still a very talented team with a shutdown defense, and if Newton plays, they could easily win this game as the underdog. Taking Carolina and the three points is a smart wager.

Another game line that has been fluctuating is New England vs. Miami. The Patriots started the week as 4.5-point favorites and climbed to a five-point spread midweek. As of this morning, though, Miami had closed the gap a bit and the spread was down to four points. Regardless of the spread, New England is the better team and should win by at least a touchdown.

One team that has steadily fallen in the spread is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Tennessee Titans are a solid team, but Kansas City made the playoffs last year and look to be even better this season. The betting line began the week at four points in favor of the Chiefs, but fell to 3.5 midweek and now down to three points. Bettors should place a healthy wager on KC giving the points and feel very confident in their decision.

If you are looking for an underdog this week worth a serious wager, the answer is the Minnesota Vikings. The St. Louis Rams are overcoming the loss of starting quarterback Sam Bradford and are still the three-point favorites in this Week 1 matchup. Minnesota isn’t a great team, but they have the weapons to pull out a straight-up victory. Even if St. Louis pulls out the win, Adrian Peterson will keep the Vikings close enough to beat the spread.

Watching the ebb and flow of the lines throughout the week is key to making the right decision on which teams to pick. If you can decipher the trends and take advantage of them, bettors can make a lot of money.

*Stats via NFL.com.

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