Realistic Expectations for Boston Celtics' Marcus Smart in 2014-15
Unsurprisingly, most of the conversations about Boston Celtics rookie Marcus Smart have had more to do with Rajon Rondoโs future than the talented combo guard himself. Most recently, ESPN.com's Marc Stein suggested the Houston Rockets were set to resume trade talks involving Rondo.
However, focusing on him is doing Smart a disservice.
Heโll have some growing pains as he adjusts to the league and figures out his position, but Smart has the talent to be a difference-maker right away.
Boston needs talent, and for all of Smartโs past character issues, there is no denying his physical gifts.ย
Obviously, Smartโs role could change immensely if Rondo is dealt, but letโs examine his past performance, Orlando Summer League play and the Celtsโ current roster to see if we can paint a picture of how Smart might look in his debut NBA campaign.
Smartโs Roleย
Smart was Oklahoma Stateโs lead ball-handler, but the 6โ4โ guard has the size to switch between both backcourt spots.
On a team that already has a dominant facilitator, Smart will be free to do more work off the ball and log more time at the 2 than he did in college.
In his sophomore season as a Cowboy, Smart averaged 18 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game, but shot just 42.2 percent from the field and 29.9 percent from three-point range.
He jacked up far too many jumpers in lieu of driving hard to the basket.
That wonโt fly in the Association, and Smartโs shaky outside shot will likely limit his role until it improves.
Smart and Rondo could likely play off each other well, but itโll be tough to play Rondoโa career 25.2 percent three-point shooterโwith another range-limited guard.
Therefore, it is extremely unlikely Smart sees regular starts.
Avery Bradley, who recently inked a four-year, $32 million deal, should start and see the brunt of the 2-guard minutes.
That means Smartโll likely be the third guard, logging most of his minutes when Rondo sits and helping to keep the offense afloat.
Defensively, head coach Brad Stevens may use him to provide some full-court pressure on opposing point guards the way Bradley does.ย
Smart is excellent at forcing turnovers, averaging 2.9 steals per game over his college career, and has the lateral quickness and length to be a menace defensively.
Most importantly, using Smart to provide pressure would help to keep Bradley fresher.
Heโs injury-prone and figures to have an expanded role in the Boston offense this year, so conserving his energy is key.
Alongside Marcus Thornton, James Young and potentially Phil Pressey, Smart will vying for guard minutes but figures to see the most action of any backcourt player off the bench.
Summer League Play
Smart put up solid numbers in the Orlando Summer League, but plenty of holes were unfortunately still evident in his game.
In the five contests, he averaged 14.8 points, 4.2 boards and 4.2 dimes per game, but shot a grizzly 29 percent from the field and just 25.9 percent from three.
He did a good job of staying aggressive and getting to the line, but those percentages are unacceptable.
To his credit, Smart improved over time, notching 19 points against the Orlando Magic and 20 against the Indiana Pacers.ย
โIโm comfortable. Itโs just, I have to find a touch and I think Iโve done that these last two games,โย Smart told The Boston Globeโs Baxter Holmes.
Assistant Coach Jay Larranaga echoed the rookie's sentiment.
"I think we saw glimpses at times in [Thursdayโs] game and [Friday] where he got it going and he was feeling a little more comfortable. So I feel really confident that heโs going to be a really solid offensive player," he said.
Smart had some nice moments driving to the hole and setting up teammates, but still has a ways to go.
Looking at his college shot chart, itโs clear that he is at his best when heโs attacking the hoop rather than settling for jumpers.
Unfortunately, based on his summer performance, he clearly has not quite figured that out.
Smartโs athleticism and ability to intercept passes were evident in Orlando, but so were his shortcomings.
The Rest of the Roster
If Boston decides to keep Pressey, itโll have six rotation-level players on its roster when the season begins.
Think about that for a second, and remember that there are only 96 minutes available per game for backcourt players.
Smart is gritty and physical, but there is no way Boston could get away with playing him at the 3 for any stretch of time.
Obviously, a fully healthy Rondo will deserve 32-plus minutes per game, and Bradley could see his role increase now that heโs on a hefty contract.
Rondo is also in a contract year, so heโll be extra-motivated to play major minutes and prove his knee is 100 percent healthy.
Bradley figures to see an increased offensive workload and the brunt of available time at 2-guard.
Young is a work in progress and projects to be a small forward long-term, but heโs likely too thin now to bang with small forwards.ย He could see a few spot minutes at the 2 as he adjusts to the league and works on his three-pointer.ย
Playing Thornton regularly doesnโt make much sense for the rebuilding Celtics, but they may look to beef up his trade value and see if a contender would give up a second-rounder at the trade deadline for him.
Boston has incentives to give Smart meaningful minutes early and let him develop, but itโs tough to see how it can trot him out for 28-plus minutes given its backcourt depth.
The Celts could certainly make a trade that frees up some minutes, but as of right now, Smartโs upside is limited by the perimeter logjam Boston is facing.
Expect to see him play somewhere around 24-26 minutes next season unless the Cโs make a move.
Final Verdict
Because of the crowded backcourt and his limitations, Smart wonโt have the opportunity to make an impact like Jabari Parker, Dante Exum or Julius Randle will in their first seasons.
Typically, lottery point guards tend to do better when they are given a starting role and allowed to make mistakes yet still play 30-plus minutes.
Think Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker or Michael Carter-Williams.
Even Jonny Flynn looked good as a rookie starter before his career was derailed.
The recent history of guards like Alec Burks and Terrence Williams who had to play off the pine at first is certainly spottier.
However, Smartโs still going to be a key cog off the bench for the Celtics in 2014-15.
The Celtics offense (26thย in points per game at 96.2, 22ndย in assists at 21.0) was often anemic last season.
Adding a playmaker of Smartโs caliber should give Boston a huge spark off the bench, and Smart will be able to thrive when driving on second-team guards.
If he can continue to work on his shot, his rookie ceiling will only improve. At present, defenders are going to be playing far off him to prevent drives.
Defensively, Smart figures to be a plus right away. He has a lethal mix of size, quickness and athleticism thatโll make him an instant difference-maker.
Ultimately, expect Smart to average something in the neighborhood of 9.5 points, 3.8 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game on 43.5 percent shooting as he makes a push for the NBA All-Rookie Second Team.
With that said, those numbers will look a whole lot better if Rondo ends up elsewhere.
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