Liver's Week 2 NFL Picks: Patriots to Cover Against the Chargers

Sometimes, I overestimate people.

I figure if it’s written, people ought to read it—kind of like I figure Roy Williams ought to be able to judge a ball in the air, or Britney Spears ought to know the difference between two pills and enough to drop a horse. 

That said, for the visually impaired among you who think these picks are to win...

THESE PICKS ARE NOT TO WIN. THESE PICKS ARE TO COVER THE SPREAD.

I’m talking to those ANONYMOUS fools out there who called me crazy because I picked the Saints to win at Indy. I picked the Saints to COVER...as did just about every other reputable bookmaker in Vegas.

No one saw that blowout coming. No one knows shit the first two weeks of the season.

Got that ANONYMOUS?
 
On another depressing note: How far gone is this country when credit car companies (I’m talking to YOU, VISA) run commercials saying that cash is out of fashion...and that anyone who uses it only slows down the fattening march of mass consumerism?

Oh, so all it takes is one swipe and you’re on your way, huh? Funny how they don’t show the time it takes to type in your pin and press yes three times.

I’m slow if I use CASH? Get serious.

On a serious note: Kevin Everett should be held up as an example of how prayers can be answered. Keep them coming so he can walk out of that hospital one day.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. The Liver’s picks are to cover the spread, not straight-up winners. Only Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Kanye West, Roger Goodell, Bill Beliprick, and Travis Henry’s nine kids and nine mommas would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 5-9-2

2007 Record Against the Spread: 5-9-2

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Houston (+6 ½) at Carolina

Carolina came through with a surprising win over St. Louis last week. Jake Delhomme looked good, and the Carolina running game produced 186 yards. Houston won their season opener for the first time since 2003 AND Mario Williams got two sacks and returned a fumble for a TD. The words of Vincent Hanna come to mind here: “Well I am overfuckingwhelmed.”

Pick: Carolina

Cincinnati at Cleveland (+6 ½)

Ah the life of a Browns fan. You’re starting QB lasts one quarter then gets traded less than a week later. You’re begging for a rookie QB who missed half of training camp to come and get his brains bashed in. And your coach is professionally a dead man walking. If the Bengals could make the Baltimore defense look that bad...yikes. Methinks Cleveland is like Ed McDonnough’s insides: a rocky place where a seed can find no purchase. Anyone care to take some odds on how long Derek Anderson lasts?

Pick: Cincinnati

Atlanta (+10) at Jacksonville

Jack Del Rio had to be madder than Kanye West losing a VMA award after losing to Tennessee last week. It would appear that these are the same Jags of last year, who can’t seem to put bad teams away. But if they can’t pounce on the Falcons, they might as well fire Del Rio now. I’m through losing money on this team.

Pick: Atlanta

Green Bay at N.Y. Giants (Pk)

The 24 ticker is up and running over Tom Coughlin’s head. How this man continues to steal a paycheck is beyond me. Jared Lorenzen, who has got to be the fattest QB I’ve ever seen, is scheduled to start, but little Manning has been taking snaps this week, so who knows. I do know the Giants are missing key players, including their best defensive player in DE Osi Umenyiora.  The Packers didn’t exactly look spectacular last week in their win over Filthy, but took advantage of special teams miscues. In a pick 'em game, always go with the healthy home team.

Pick: Green Bay

Buffalo (+10) at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh dominated last week...against the Browns. I consider that to be little more than a good scrimmage. Let’s see what they can do against a Bills defense that took Denver down to literally the last seconds before that amazing game-winning FG by Jason Elam.

Pick: Pittsburgh

San Francisco (+3) at St. Louis

San Francisco got the win over Arizona but didn’t impress anyone, while St. Louis got bombed by Carolina. The most drastic changes teams make are usually between Weeks Two and Three, so we should get a better idea of what these teams are. This being a divisional game raises the stakes—particularly for the Rams, who can’t start 0-2 and hope to be in the division hunt.

Pick: St. Louis

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+3 ½)

After getting embarrassed by the Colts on opening Thursday, the Saints have had plenty of time to sit and spin. Should I talk about Tampa Bay? Nah. I’ll just take these Huggies and whatever cash ya got.

Pick: New Orleans

Indianapolis at Tennessee (+7)

If the Colts defense is as good as it looked last Thursday night, pencil them in against the Pats in the AFC Championship game. Once again, my hero Vince Young pulled off the impossible, beating a Jags team with playoff aspirations. No flashy stats for VY...just leadership, heart, and legs. Like Senor Ferrari says about the Nazis in Casablanca, though, the Colts  D outlaws miracles.

Pick: Indy

Seattle at Arizona (+3)

Seattle took care of business last week, while Arizona struggled against the 49ers. Both teams have good offenses, so this could be a high-scoring game. Arizona will have the pressure on them, as they need to avoid an 0-2 start in their division.

Pick: Seattle

Minnesota (+3) at Detroit

It looked like the same old Lions when they blew a 17-0 lead to let the Raiders go ahead 21-20 in the fourth quarter...but Rod Marinelli’s influence may finally be infecting this moribund franchise, as his pulled away for a 36-21 win. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s defense basically beat the Falcons single-handedly. Adrian Peterson was impressive in his debut; he and Chester Taylor could be one of the best RB tandems in the league. Sooner or later Tarvaris Jackson is going to have to generate some offense, though, and the Vikings just don’t have the wide receivers yet—unless you count Sidney Rice’s two receptions for 10 yards.

Pick: Detroit

Dallas at Miami (+3 ½)

This is a dangerous game for the Cowboys. Consider these stats for a moment:

The Dolphins are 44-15 all time at home in September. Since 1994, the Dolphins are 20-4 in September at home. 

Is this because the Dolphins have been some unstoppable team?

Hardly—it’s the weather at summer’s end in Miami.

This time of the year, it's usually in the low- to mid-90s with 65-70 percent humidity.  The Cowboys are used to playing in the heat, but Texas heat and Florida heat are two different women.

Miami has problems all over on offense. Their defense isn’t nearly as strong as it used to be, but it still has arguably the league’s best past rusher in Jason Taylor.

The Cowboys are coming off a win over a Giants team who had playmakers on offense, but whose defense stinks and basically quit in the fourth quarter. They face the mirror opposite this weekend.

Considering the Cowboys are on the road next week at Chicago against a frightening defense, they must find a way to pull this one out.

Pick: Miami

N.Y. Jets (+11) at Baltimore

Hats off to the Jets faithful—you’ve almost matched the Filthy fans when it comes to the title of trashiest, most despicable fans in all of sports. After last week, Steve McNair was seen getting Doc Brown’s DeLorean up to 88 mph in the M&T Bank Stadium parking lot. Yes, 11 points is a lot, but Baltimore looked awful, and will come out angry in their home opener. That and Kellen Clemens starting at QB for the Jets makes me lean towards...

Pick: Baltimore

Kansas City (+12) at Chicago

(Yawn) This should be a real barn-burner. Two inept offenses. Think I’m gonna pull an H.I. McDonnough and skip this little get together, slip out with the boys, and knock back a couple of Coca-Colas. Chicago’s defense can win this by themselves. 12 points is a lot...BUT HAVE YOU SEEN KC’S OFFENSE?

Pick: Chicago

Oakland (+10) at Denver

Good news, Raiders fans—you finally signed No. 1 pick JaMarcus Russell. Bad news—you probably won’t see him on the field this season. Denver needed every last second to beat Buffalo last week. Both defenses are good, although Oakland’s didn’t show it in the opener. This is a blood rivalry, so expect some hard hitting. Lane Kiffin continues to perfect his Jedi mind trick by not revealing whether he’s starting McCown or Culpepper. Can’t you see him in press conferences? “You don’t need to know who I’m starting on Sunday.” We don’t need to know who he’s starting on Sunday. Move along.

Pick: Oakland

San Diego (+3 ½) at New England

This one was already a circled in red game when the schedule came out. With Videogate, the way the Pats disgraced the Chargers' field after their playoff win, and LT’s apparent hatred for the Pats, expect this game to be something akin to Martin Riggs and Mr. Joshua facing off for the title in Lethal Weapon. Without a doubt, the must-watch game of the weekend.  Wonder if NBC will use the same 80s CD for time outs that they used last week. I’m sorry but Depeche Mode, Def Leppard, and Tommy Tutone didn't quite do it for me.  I felt like I was back in middle school raiding my girlfriend’s parents’ liquor cabinet. At least someone at NBC broadcasting realized that Faith Hill is MUCH better to look at then a torn-up Pink.

Pick: Patriots

Monday, September 17, 2007

Washington (+7) at Philadelphia

The NFC East is always a tight division, and there's no love lost in this one. Both teams had identical scores (16-13) last week—but the Eagles lost and the Redskins won. That makes this an early must-win for Filthy. Donovan McNabb looked sluggish, and Jason Campbell had two costly picks with no TDs. This game will come down to running the football—and if Portis and Betts do what they did last week, Filthy will have their hands full. Look for Jim Johnson to blitz Campbell frequently and force him into bad throws. 

Pick: Filthy