2014 Kentucky Derby: Final Odds and Predictions for All Horses

The wait for the actual race on Saturday can be excruciating. Nothing is ever quite as long as Kentucky Derby day, but one of the fun ways to pass the time is to see how the betting has changed the odds and make predictions for yourself.

So, let's do just that.

We start with the general information, including post positions, up-to-date odds and my own personal predictions for the entire field. 

Post	Horse	Owner(s)	Trainer	Jockey	Odds	Prediction
1	Vicar's In Trouble	Kenneth L. and Sarah K. Ramsey	Mike Maker	Rosie Napravnik	20-1	11
2	Harry's Holiday	Skychai Racing LLC, Sand Dollar Stable, LLC, Terry Raymond & Jana Wagner	Mike Maker	Corey Lanerie	38-1	17
3	Uncle Sigh	Wounded Warrior Stables & Anthony C. Robertson	Gary Contessa	Irad Ortiz Jr.	26-1	15
4	Danza	Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners	Todd Pletcher	Joe Bravo	9-1	3
5	California Chrome	Steve and Carolyn Coburn & Perry and Denise Martin	Art Sherman	Victor Espinoza	2-1	1
6	Samraat	My Meadowview Farm	Rick Violette Jr.	Jose Ortiz	14-1	6
7	We Miss Artie	Kenneth L. and Sarah K. Ramsey	Todd Pletcher	Javier Castellano	22-1	19
8	General A Rod	Starlight Racing & Skychai Racing, LLC	Mike Maker	Joel Rosario	29-1	14
9	Vinceremos	WinStar Farm LLC and Twin Creeks Racing	Todd Pletcher	Joe Rococo Jr.	50-1	18
10	Wildcat Red	Honors Stable Corp.	Jose Garoffalo	Luis Saez	16-1	16
11	Hoppertunity (SCRATCHED)
12	Dance With Fate	S. Alesia, Bran Jam Stable & Ciaglia Racing, LLC	Peter Eurton	Corey Nakatani	14-1	9
13	Chitu	Tanma Corporation	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia	26-1	10
14	Medal Count	Spendthrift Farm	Dale Romans	Robby Albarado	23-1	4
15	Tapiture	Winchell Thoroughbreds	Steve Asmussen	Ricardo Santana Jr.	38-1	8
16	Intense Holiday	Starlight Racing	Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez	14-1	5
17	Commanding Curve	West Point Thoroughbreds	Dallas Stewart	Shaun Bridgmohan	31-1	12
18	Candy Boy	C R K Stable LLC	John Sadler	Gary Stevens	16-1	13
19	Ride On Curlin	Daniel J. Dougherty	William G. Gowan	Calvin Borel	15-1	7
20	Wicked Strong	Centennial Farms	James A. Jerkens	Rajiv Maragh	7-1	2
21	Pablo Del Monte (SCRATCHED)			21	Pablo Del Monte (SCRATCHED)

As you can see, California Chrome has become the overwhelming favorite as the Derby nears, to nobody's surprise. If you've had misgivings about the race favorite, allow Tim Layden of Sports Illustrated to allay them.

"

I'm picking him because his last two races—the Santa Anita Derby and, before that, a 7 1/4-length win in the San Felipe Stakes—are by a wide margin the two most impressive races by any three-year-old colt in America.

I'm picking him because I believe that he can repeat those performances on Saturday evening in the Derby, against horses that are simply athletically inferior. I'm betting on talent. The track? Chrome has been getting better with each day and he'll be plenty comfortable with the Churchill dirt by Saturday, when it's traditionally lightning fast. Traffic? [Victor] Espinoza has been planning for the unexpected since he first got on the colt's back in December. The jockey took him back and circled the field in the California Cup Derby in December, and then purposely put him on the lead in the San Felipe.

"I wanted to try different things with him," says Espinoza. "I know that sounds crazy, but I wanted to see what he could do. And he can do anything."

"

It certainly seems that way. Now all he has to do is prove he can live up to enormous expectations. If the Triple Crown were Star Wars, well, California Chrome would be Obi-Wan Kenobi, because he truly is our only hope.

Some horses have been ignored enough that they've seen their odds made more favorable while others have been bet on enough that you won't be getting a bargain on them now. We Miss Artie has apparently become a popular sleeper choice for folks, as he went from 50-1 odds Friday to 22-1 Saturday morning. 

Perhaps folks think they've identified this year's Orb. We shall see. 

People have steered far clear of the horse next to him, meanwhile, as General a Rod came in at 15-1 odds and is now settling at 29-1. Dance With Fate has been bet down to 14-1 odds from 20-1, while Tapiture doesn't seem very popular, going from 12-1 to 38-1.

ESPN Insider Lane Gold is surprised by that change:

He keeps floating, apparently. 

Intense Holiday has also floated up to 14-1 odds from 8-1, while Commanding Curve is another long shot that people seem to like (31-1 now after opening at 50-1).

Personally, much like Layden, I think California Chrome is going to live up to the hype. You can take all of the factors into account you want, but at the end of the day, talent has to count for something, and CC is unquestionably the most talented horse in this field. 

I think Wicked Strong is going to make things tight down the stretch but just won't have quite enough of a final kick to catch CC. Danza will be in the running but will be slightly outclassed and finish third. Deep closer Medal Count will end up in fourth. 

Turns out, Mr. Layden and I agree completely on the results of this race. We'll see if we're right.