Assigning the Odds to Every Potential Green Bay Packers' 1st-Round Pick

Matt Stein@MatthewJSteinCorrespondent IIApril 17, 2014

Assigning the Odds to Every Potential Green Bay Packers' 1st-Round Pick

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    Do the Packers really have a chance in drafting Calvin Pryor, one of the top safeties in this year's draft?
    Do the Packers really have a chance in drafting Calvin Pryor, one of the top safeties in this year's draft?Andy Lyons/Getty Images

    It's never an easy task to determine who has the best odds to be drafted by the Green Bay Packers. This is especially true for their first-round pick.

    However, there are certainly players who have a better chance of being picked by Green Bay than others. For example, there is a 99.9 percent chance that the Packers will not be selecting quarterback Johnny Manziel in this year's draft.

    Today, we're going to assign odds to every potential first-round pick for the Packers. We'll only look at realistic options for Green Bay based on need, value and availability.

S Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix, Alabama

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    Odds: 5 percent

    There is no doubt that safety Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix is one of the picks that the Packers would love the most. He's widely regarded as the top safety in this year's draft, and safety is easily the biggest need on the roster right now.

    Unfortunately for Green Bay, there are a number of teams selecting earlier in the first round that also need a safety. In fact, it's possible that the Packers' own division rival, the Detroit Lions, could select Clinton-Dix with the No. 10 pick.

    As the draft gets closer and closer, it appears that the only way the Packers could draft Clinton-Dix is if they're willing to trade up for him. However, that generally isn't how general manager Ted Thompson works in the first round of drafts.

    While it'd be great to add Clinton-Dix to the roster in Green Bay, it simply doesn't look like it will happen.

TE Eric Ebron, North Carolina

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    Odds: 5 percent

    Much like Clinton-Dix, tight end Eric Ebron has low odds of landing in Green Bay due to his superior talent. There just simply isn't a good chance that Ebron will be available at pick No. 21. If he was available, however, there's little doubt that the Packers would snatch him up in a heartbeat.

    Ebron is an extremely dangerous tight end in the passing game. He has great athleticism and the ability to consistently make plays in the open field.

    The Packers currently lack a top-tier tight end, and adding a player like Ebron would instantly make their offense all the more dangerous. Unfortunately, it's unlikely to happen due to how good Ebron is and the fact that teams drafting before the Packers also have major needs at the tight end position.

DT Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota

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    Odds: 10 percent

    There was a time not too long ago when defensive tackle Ra'Shede Hageman was a popular choice in the first round for the Packers in many mock drafts. However, that's no longer the case now that we're less than a month from the draft.

    The biggest reason is that the Packers don't have a big need at defensive tackle anymore. By signing B.J. Raji to a one-year deal, they are pretty well set at the position for the 2014 season.

    Throw in the fact that Hageman is a major boom-or-bust prospect, and it's even less likely that the Packers will take him in the first round. That isn't to say he doesn't have quite a bit to offer teams, because he does. He's extremely athletic with a great burst of the line and incredible strength.

    However, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Hageman slip past the Packers and not get drafted until late in the first round.

S Calvin Pryor, Louisville

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Odds: 10 percent

    The second-best safety in this year's draft only has slightly higher odds of landing in Green Bay than Clinton-Dix. Once again, it's because of the needs of the teams drafting in the first half.

    Calvin Pryor may not be as polished in coverage as Clinton-Dix is, but he's still a fantastic player. He's got good ball skills, can play the run and is always ready to land a bone-crushing hit. In fact, it's Pryor's overall physicality that makes him so attractive for the Packers.

    That said, the St. Louis Rams, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens all have a major need at the safety position. For Pryor to get past all of those teams would simply be a miracle.

    While it's a little more likely that the Packers will land Pryor, there still aren't great odds of it actually happening.

TE Jace Amaro, Texas Tech

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    Odds: 15 percent

    While many believe the Packers would be major fools to draft an offensive player in the first round, it might not be that crazy of an idea, as there are still some needs on offense. With the future of Jermichael Finley unknown and the departure of James Jones, both tight end and wide receiver need to be addressed.

    It's unlikely the Packers will draft a wide receiver in the first round, but a tight end is a good possibility. This is especially true if a player like Jace Amaro from Texas Tech is still available.

    Amaro would complement the Packers offense perfectly due to his hands, athleticism and willingness to block in the ground game. There's no doubt that some fans would be irate at the selection of Amaro, but one person who would be extremely happy with this selection is quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

S Jimmie Ward, Northern Illinois

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Odds: 20 percent

    Jimmie Ward is the safety with the best odds of being picked by Green Bay in the first round. 

    Ward has been shooting up draft boards as of late due to his incredible ability to create turnovers. This is evident from his seven interceptions during his final year at Northern Illinois.

    Even so, it still seems that selecting him in the first round would be a little bit of a reach. The Packers could almost certainly draft a better player with the 21st pick and then move up in the early part of the second round to select Ward.

    However, don't be surprised if he is the selection in the first round simply due to the massive need at the safety position for the Packers.

ILB C.J. Mosley, Alabama

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    Odds35 percent

    The player with the best odds of being the first-round pick of the Packers is inside linebacker C.J. Mosley.

    It seems that Mosley keeps sliding more and more in the first round with each day that passes. Despite being an elite talent, not many teams in this year's draft have a need at inside linebacker.

    And while the Packers don't necessarily have a need either, Mosley would be a massive upgrade over both A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones. He's more athletic and better against the run and pass than either Hawk or Jones.

    By snagging Mosley in the first round, the Packers would be getting a top-10 player with the 21st pick. He'd instantly make the defense better as a whole and would be a potential starter for the foreseeable future.