Wisconsin vs. American Betting Line, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The Wisconsin Badgers took a roller coaster ride this season, with a thrilling start, a midseason swoon and a satisfying finish.

They'll now try to avoid a second straight early departure from the NCAA tournament when they battle the Eagles of American University in a West Region matchup on Thursday in Milwaukee.

The point spread keeps growing in favor Wisconsin, but they haven’t been great at the payout window when laying points (4-14 against the spread when favored).

Spread and total points scored betting line

The Badgers opened as 10-point favorites, but the line was -13.5 by Wednesday. The total was 122. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Odds Shark computer pick

65-55, Wisconsin

Why pick American to cover the spread

The Eagles are quietly one of the most pleasant surprises in college basketball this season. Picked by many to finish in the lower half of the Patriot League, American instead finished second in the regular season, then won the conference tournament to earn its way into the Big Dance for the first time since 2009.

The Eagles started 3-7, then won 11 in a row and finished with a 5-1 flourish. Wise with shot selection, No. 15 seed American has four guys averaging at least 11 points per game and has held opponents to just 59 PPG.

Also, while the Eagles only played four games this season that appeared on the Vegas betting menu, they covered all four.

Why pick Wisconsin to cover the spread

Playing one of the toughest schedules in the country, the Badgers started 16-0 and, despite a midseason hiccup, finished second in the Big Ten. Wisconsin owns victories over SEC champion and current No. 1 Florida, ACC regular-season and tournament champion Virginia, Big Ten champion Michigan, Saint Louis, UW-Milwaukee, Michigan State and Iowa (two).

So the Badgers are in the NCAA tournament for the 16th straight season, earning their highest seed ever at No. 2. Wisconsin is also 7-4 ATS this season as double-digit chalk on the betting line.

Smart betting pick

The Badgers fared well against a brutal schedule this season, thanks in large part to probably their best offensive effort in 12 seasons under coach Bo Ryan.

All five Wisconsin starters are averaging between 9.5 and 14.0 points per game and all five have led the team in scoring at least once this season. The Badgers lost their opening tournament game last year to Ole Miss, but Bo won't let that happen again.

Give the points with Wisconsin.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

American Eagles: No. 193

Wisconsin Badgers: No. 34 

March Madness betting trends

• Wisconsin 4-10 ATS past 14 games as favorites
• Wisconsin 5-2 ATS past seven first-round games
• American won the Patriot League title
• American ended year on 5-1 SU run

Note: All spread and betting line data powered by Odds Shark.