New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The two-time defending champion Miami Heat, seeded second in the Eastern Conference right now, play host to the outside-looking-in New York Knicks tonight.

The Knicks are in 11th place in the conference and are underdogs of 10 points at some sportsbooks. The trends point UNDER but the pick is for an OVER play here.

Point Spread

Miami opened as 11-point favorites, but the number has been bet down to -9 at most shops and -10 at several tracked by OddsShark.com. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark Computer Prediction

98-91 Miami

Why New York can cover the spread

Carmelo Anthony is always a good reason to count on the Knicks staying in games. As a whole, the Knicks are most certainly outclassed in this contest, in terms of talent.

But the fact that they're playing the Heat—with LeBron James scheduled to return to the court with his broken nose—should motivate Anthony to a top-notch performance, and that could keep New York close.

Why Miami can cover the spread

The Heat have won five straight games, and eight of their last 10. They're on the prowl for the top spot in the East, which is currently held by the Indiana Pacers.

Miami is two games back of Indiana, and having home-court advantage throughout the conference playoffs should be motivating enough for the Heat to play dominant basketball the rest of the way.

Smart Pick

As tempting as it is to pull the trigger on the champs, the Over looks much more enticing in this game. Anthony is a scoring machine, and the only way the Knicks can stay in this game is to score plenty of points.

An exciting Anthony-James shootout would be epic, and isn't out of the question. The first two meetings have stayed UNDER and the Heat are 6-1 favoring the UNDER in seven recent games against Atlantic Division foes. But that just means they're due for an offensive outburst. Play this one high.

Trends

• New York is 2-6 ATS (1-7 SU) in its last eight games on the road

• The total has gone OVER in seven of New York's last eight road games

• Miami is 5-0 ATS in the past five games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.