NFL Lines Week 16: Breaking Down Most Surprising Spreads of the Weekend

Even 16 weeks into the NFL season, oddsmakers still have a way of surprising bettors with some interesting point spreads. 

The idea of the lines is to create a tough decision on what would be otherwise obvious picks straight up. However, there are a few easier choices based on one-sided lines that seem too big or too small for the teams competing.

Obviously, the NFL always has a tendency of surprising people virtually every week, but there are some relatively safe picks available for the weekend. Here is a look at the more interesting picks of Week 16, along with a full list of point spreads courtesy of Vegas Insider.

Away	Home	Spread	Pick (ATS)
Miami Dolphins	Buffalo Bills	MIA -2.5	Dolphins
New Orleans Saints	Carolina Panthers	CAR -3	Panthers
Dallas Cowboys	Washington Redskins	DAL -3	Cowboys
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	St. Louis Rams	STL -4	Rams
Chicago Bears	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -3	Eagles
Cleveland Browns	New York Jets	NYJ -1	Jets
Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	KC -7	Colts
Minnesota Vikings	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -8.5	Bengals
Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	DEN -10	Broncos
Tennessee Titans	Jacksonville Jaguars	TEN -5	Jaguars
Arizona Cardinals	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -10	Cardinals
New York Giants	Detroit Lions	DET -10	Lions
Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	SD -10	Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers	Green Bay Packers	GB -1	Packers
New England Patriots	Baltimore Ravens	BAL -2	Ravens
Atlanta Falcons	San Francisco 49ers	SF -14	Falcons

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills

Although the Bills did beat the Dolphins earlier in the year, these are very different teams at this point of the season.

Miami has won three games in a row and has put itself in good position to qualify for the playoffs. Ryan Tannehill has especially been impressive, as noted by Phil Simms:

With his poise in the sight of a lot of pressure, the second-year quarterback has proven that he can overcome whatever the Bills defense throws at him.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has played three games in a row against 4-10 teams and has only come out with one win. To make matters worse, starting quarterback EJ Manuel will be out with a knee injury, according to Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald.

Even on the road, the Dolphins should be able to keep up the recent winning streak and stay in playoff contention.

Carolina Panthers (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints

The general theory when it comes to betting lines is that home-field advantage is worth three points. However, the New Orleans Saints should gain or lose close to 10 based on location.

At home, they are 7-0 and have been generally dominant. On the road, they are 3-4 and have lost some very winnable games. ESPN Stats and Information also points out that the scores have been very different:

Even quarterback Drew Brees finally admitted the problem after last game, via NewOrleansSaints.com:

"

We’re kind of proving you guys (media) right, right now, which is unfortunate because we certainly don’t feel that way about ourselves. The record doesn’t lie. We have to play better on the road. No excuses, we have to play better on the road and we will.

"

Carolina struggled in New Orleans two weeks ago, but the Panthers should be ready to go in a very important home game. They are 6-1 at Bank of America Stadium, with the one loss coming against the Seattle Seahawks in the first game of the year.

It is hard betting against a 10-4 team, but this spread should be much higher simply based on location. 

St. Louis Rams (-5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay has played well in the second half of the season, but the offense remains suspect. Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon has regressed since his hot start, and the running attack has gone quiet as well.

Meanwhile, the Rams will cause even more problems with a pass rush that ranks fifth in the NFL in sacks this season. Drew Brees found this out the hard way in Week 14 when he was sacked four times and hit seven times.

This pressure will cause Glennon to make mistakes that the Rams certainly know how to take advantage of at home.

In the last two games in the Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis beat the Saints and Chicago Bears by a combined 32 points. The Rams totaled a plus-six turnover differential in these two contests.

As long as Kellen Clemens avoids mistakes (five interceptions in four losses as starter, zero interceptions in three wins), St. Louis should get another big win.

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