NFL Week 16 Predictions: Breaking Down Biggest Locks Against the Spread

It might seem as though things should get a bit more obvious and clear-cut as the NFL season progresses, but that simply isn't the case due to the insane amount of parity that currently exists in the league.

Most of the games in Week 16 figure to be closely contested; however, there is still money to be made from a betting perspective.

There are several games that feature a particular team being spotted a few points when it could very easily win outright. There obviously aren't any guarantees, but it's usually a good idea to take the points in those situations, especially when it's tough to definitively say that one team is better than the other.

Here are the three biggest locks against the spread that will lead you to a successful betting venture in Week 16.

Away Team	Home Team	Spread	Pick ATS
Miami Dolphins	Buffalo Bills	MIA (-3)	BUF
New Orleans Saints	Carolina Panthers	CAR (-3)	NO
Dallas Cowboys	Washington Redskins	DAL (-3)	DAL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	St. Louis Rams	STL (-4.5)	STL
Cleveland Browns	New York Jets	NYJ (-2.5)	CLE
Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	KC (-7)	IND
Minnesota Vikings	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN (-7)	CIN
Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	DEN (-10.5)	DEN
Tennessee Titans	Jacksonville Jaguars	TEN (-5.5)	JAC
Arizona Cardinals	Seattle Seahawks	SEA (-10.5)	SEA
New York Giants	Detroit Lions	DET (-9)	NYG
Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	SD (-10)	SD
Pittsburgh Steelers	Green Bay Packers	OFF	GB
New England Patriots	Baltimore Ravens	BAL (-2.5)	BAL
Chicago Bears	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI (-3)	PHI
Atlanta Falcons	San Francisco 49ers	SF (-12)	SF

Buffalo Bills (+3 vs. MIA)

The Miami Dolphins are hitting their stride at the right time, and they are currently tied for the final wild-card spot in the AFC with the Baltimore Ravens. Miami also seemingly has an easy schedule to close the season with games against the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets.

Although their 5-9 record doesn't show it, the Bills are actually quite dangerous. They beat the Dolphins on the road earlier in the season, and there is no reason why they can't do it again, especially with adverse weather conditions expected in Orchard Park, N.Y., according to Andrew Abramson of The Palm Beach Post. 

Buffalo's win over Miami came in the midst of a rough stretch for the Dolphins, and there is no question that they have since turned things around as evidenced by their three-game winning streak. The Bills are 3-3 in true home games this year, though, and they have the personnel necessary to give Miami fits.

One thing to consider is the fact that Thad Lewis will be starting at quarterback for Buffalo. Per the Bills' official Twitter account, starter EJ Manuel will sit with a knee injury.

Lewis actually started when Buffalo beat Miami earlier in the season, so he already knows how to get the job done. In that particular game, the defense keyed the Bills' victory as they forced three turnovers and sacked Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill twice. Buffalo is first in the league in sacks and tied for third in interceptions, and with poor weather factored in, the Bills should be able to pull off the upset.

New Orleans Saints (+3 @ CAR)

Based on how poorly the New Orleans Saints have played on the road over the past few weeks, it may be difficult for some to trust them against the Carolina Panthers in Week 16.

The Panthers are a great team in their own right, and they feature an elite defense that could give quarterback Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense fits. With that said, the Saints beat the Panthers easily by a score of 31-13 in Week 14, so they have the blueprint necessary to overcome their divisional rivals.

New Orleans is a perfect 7-0 within the friendly confines of the Superdome, but it is a disappointing 3-4 in enemy territory. That issue reared its ugly head in Week 15 when the Saints looked awful en route to a 27-16 loss to the St. Louis Rams.

Brees is fully aware of the problem, and he knows that the team needs to get past it, according to NewOrleansSaints.com.

"

We know what we’re playing for; we’re playing for the divisional championship and the two seed so it doesn’t get any bigger or better than that. It is going to be a challenge for us. Obviously we understand our deficiencies on the road here the last couple of trips. It is great motivation for us to really hammer down this week, find ways to improve and get better.

"

Saying it and doing it are two different things, but Brees and head coach Sean Payton seem to come up big more often than not. If New Orleans loses in Week 16, then it will likely have to settle for a wild-card berth. That could be a huge detriment due to the advantage that New Orleans has at home. With so much hanging in the balance, the Saints will find a way to get the job done.

Cleveland Browns (+2.5 @ NYJ)

In what may be the dullest game on the Week 16 slate, the Cleveland Browns will travel to East Rutherford, N.J. to take on the New York Jets. Neither team is particularly exciting, but it is certainly a game that bettors can take advantage of.

Despite the fact that New York has largely looked pathetic in recent weeks, it is a 2.5-point favorite at home. Cleveland is admittedly on a five-game losing streak, but at least it has shown some signs of life.

The Browns have lost by seven or fewer points in each of the past three weeks to the Chicago Bears, New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars, respectively. That New England game was particularly heartbreaking as Cleveland lost by a single point after the Pats recovered an onside kick late.

The Browns offense has kept them in games lately, and the play of wide receiver Josh Gordon has everything to do with that. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the numbers suggest that he is the most dynamic pass-catcher in the NFL.

That doesn't bode well for a Jets team that is 26th in the league against the pass. Conversely, the Browns rank No. 9 against the pass defensively, and Jets rookie quarterback Geno Smith has been an absolute train wreck.

It's likely that this will be a low-scoring affair, but the Browns are much more likely to score when push comes to shove. Because of that, it would be wise to take the points.

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