Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills: Betting Odds Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Buffalo Bills are 8-3 against the spread over their last 11 games lined as home dogs. Buffalo is a home dog again this week against the rival Miami Dolphins, who have won two of the last three trips to Buffalo.

But overall, the Dolphins are money losers at Buffalo at 2-6 ATS over the past eight seasons.

Point spread: Dolphins opened as 3-point favorites; the total was 42.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 21.7-17.2 Dolphins

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami has won three games in a row after beating New England on Sunday 24-20, so at 8-6, they trail the Baltimore Ravens by a tiebreaker for the second AFC wild-card slot. Statistically speaking, the Dolphins don't say much, but they have managed to gut out a couple of tough wins the last couple of weeks.

And quarterback Ryan Tannehill has thrown eight touchdown passes against just two interceptions during the winning streak. They ride a nice little 5-1 ATS streak in December games over the past few seasons.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo may be playing out the string, but it also just ran for 198 yards in beating Jacksonville on Sunday, 27-20. Utilizing the one-two punch of C.J. Spiller (745 yards) and Fred Jackson (725 yards), the Bills rank fourth in the league in rushing at 138 yards per game.

So far this NFL season, teams that have outrushed their opponents have covered the spread in 60 percent of games. There is also the 8-3 ATS run as a home underdog on Buffalo's side.

Also, Buffalo is shooting for the sweep of this season series, having beaten the Fish down at Sun Life Stadium back in October, 23-21.

Smart Pick

The computer is predicting Miami will win and cover in a game that stays UNDER its total. With a wild-card berth within grasp, the Dolphins are playing with purpose. Baltimore holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Miami, but the Ravens also have two tough games to play against the Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals.

The Dolphins are just the more complete and consistent team in this matchup. Give the short spread with Miami.

Trends:

• Dolphins won two of past three at Buffalo, but 2-6 ATS past eight seasons
• Dolphins 5-1 ATS past six December games
• Bills are 8-3 ATS past 11 games as home underdogs
• UNDER is 8-1 past nine Miami divisional games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.