NFL Picks Week 15: Underdogs Guaranteed to Get the Upset

Each and every week of the 2013 NFL season has been impossible to predict, and that trend will continue in Week 15 with some surprising upsets. Here are the picks (both straight up and against the spread) and a breakdown of the upsets that are sure to happen this weekend.

Away Team	Home Team	Pick	ATS Pick
Washington Redskins	Atlanta Falcons	Atlanta Falcons	ATL -6
San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB +5.5
Seattle Seahawks	New York Giants	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -7
Chicago Bears	Cleveland Browns	Cleveland Browns	CLE +1
Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Indianapolis Colts	HOU +5.5
Buffalo Bills	Jacksonville Jaguars	Jacksonville Jaguars	JAC +2.5
New England Patriots	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	NE Pick
Philadelphia Eagles	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -6.5
New York Jets	Carolina Panthers	Carolina Panthers	NYJ -10
Kansas City Chiefs	Oakland Raiders	Kansas City Chiefs	KC -5.5
Arizona Cardinals	Tennessee Titans	Arizona Cardinals	TEN +3
New Orleans Saints	St. Louis Rams	New Orleans Saints	NO -6.5
Green Bay Packers	Dallas Cowboys	Dallas Cowboys	DAL -6.5
Cincinnati Bengals	Pittsburgh Steelers	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT +2.5
Baltimore Ravens	Detroit Lions	Baltimore Ravens	BAL +6

Baltimore Ravens (+6.5) over Detroit Lions

The Baltimore Ravens have struggled mightily as the defending Super Bowl champions, but they’ve quietly won three games in a row. Granted, those games were all at home, but the Ravens offense has been better in those games.

In addition, the return of tight end Dennis Pitta has given Joe Flacco a go-to target in tough situations. The running game—or lack thereof—is still a problem, but the Detroit Lions secondary can be exposed.

The Lions are the 25th-ranked pass defense in the NFL, and Baltimore has an underrated receiving corps now that Pitta is back in the mix.

Passing Yards Allowed Per Game	Yards Per Attempt	Passer Rating Allowed Per Game
256	7.7	88.3

This game is going to be a shootout, and a very good Ravens defense will carry Baltimore to a crucial road win.

Prediction: Baltimore 31, Detroit 27

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) over Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals routed the Indianapolis Colts last week, but that was Andy Dalton’s first good performance in four games.

Week	Passer Rating
9	55.4
10	52.3
11	62.7
13	83.6
14	120.5

Furthermore, Dalton’s struggles have largely come on the road.

Location	TDs	INTs	Rating
Home	14	5	98.9
Away	11	11	80.0

In Week 15, Dalton and the Bengals travel to Heinz Field to play a Pittsburgh Steelers team looking to play spoiler.

Ben Roethlisberger has been in excellent form and leads a dangerous Steelers offense that is averaging 28 points per game in its last four contests. Pittsburgh has been relying on the passing game, and Roethlisberger has rewarded that faith due to better offensive line play.

Games	Sacks Allowed	Sacks Per Game
1-8	35	4.4
9-13	5	1.0

Antonio Brown, the league’s leader in receptions, will create problems for a Bengals defense that is missing cornerback Leon Hall, and the Steelers will help out their archrival Ravens by beating Cincinnati at home.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 23, Cincinnati 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5) over San Francisco 49ers

This is a classic trap game for the San Francisco 49ers. They’re flying across the country to play a game at 10 a.m. on their West Coast clocks. To make matters worse, they’re doing this after the most important game of their season last week when they beat their NFC West rival Seattle Seahawks.

In addition, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are actually playing pretty well right now. The Bucs are second in the league with a turnover differential of plus-13, and their defensive front (led by Gerald McCoy) will pose some problems for a Niners offensive line that could be without starting guard Mike Iupati.

Mike Glennon has been playing well recently, passing for 2,052 yards and 15 TDs since taking over as the starter.

With playmakers on both sides of the ball, Tampa Bay will be able to jump on the Niners early and pull off the upset.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 24, San Francisco 17