NFL Picks Week 15: Favorites on Upset Alert Heading into the Weekend

Even NFL teams likely heading into the playoffs are susceptible to a bad loss at this point of the year. The key for those picking games is to find the squads on the brink of an upset.

As teams get complacent with big leads in the standings, they tend to lose focus going into tough games. Meanwhile, those still fighting hard have the ability to shock the league with big wins.

This mental aspect is often unaccounted for when it comes to betting lines, and it leads to some interesting options for underdogs to come through on Sunday.

Here is a look at full picks against the spread for Week 15, followed by a few favorites who should be on upset alert.

Note: All spread info courtesy of Vegas Insider as of Dec. 11.

Away	Home	Spread	Pick (ATS)
San Diego Chargers	Denver Broncos	DEN -10.5	Broncos
Washington Redskins	Atlanta Falcons	ATL -7	Redskins
San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	SF -5.5	49ers
Arizona Cardinals	Tennessee Titans	ARI -3	Titans
New Orleans Saints	St. Louis Rams	NO -5.5	Saints
Seattle Seahawks	New York Giants	SEA -7	Seahawks
Chicago Bears	Cleveland Browns	CLE -1	Bears
Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	IND -5.5	Colts
Buffalo Bills	Jacksonville Jaguars	BUF -2	Jaguars
New England Patriots	Miami Dolphins	NE -2.5	Dolphins
Philadelphia Eagles	Minnesota Vikings	PHI -5	Vikings
New York Jets	Carolina Panthers	CAR -11	Panthers
Kansas City Chiefs	Oakland Raiders	KC -4.5	Chiefs
Green Bay Packers	Dallas Cowboys	N/A
Cincinnati Bengals	Pittsburgh Steelers	CIN -3	Bengals
Baltimore Ravens	Detroit Lions	DET -6	Lions

Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Tennessee Titans

Even though the Titans have lost four of their last five games, they are playing much better than their record indicates. They have been competitive in virtually every game this season, although a few late mistakes have consistently led to losses.

However, they should be able to move the football against the Cardinals, who will have to play without second-leading tackler Tyrann Mathieu. The rookie defensive back suffered a torn ACL and LCL in the last game and will out for the year, according to Josh Katzowitz of CBS Sports. 

This loss will be significant, as the player formerly known as "Honey Badger" was one of the biggest playmakers on an improved defense. Without him, there will be more openings in the secondary for Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter and the rest of the Titans receiving corps.

Meanwhile, Tennessee had been doing a good job of stopping the pass until it faced Peyton Manning in Week 14. Carson Palmer is not Peyton Manning, and he will struggle against an underrated defense to lose a key game on the road.

New England Patriots (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins

Even though the Patriots continue to win games, they have certainly not looked dominant in recent weeks. After an impressive come-from-behind victory against the Denver Broncos, they struggled to narrow triumphs over the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns, two teams with a combined six wins.

To make matters worse, Rob Gronkowski is now out for the year with a torn ACL and MCL, according to ESPN.

With the big tight end in the lineup, the Patriots have averaged 32 points per game. This is a big jump compared to the average of 20.8 points without him. 

Miami has a strong enough pass rush to put pressure on Tom Brady, and he will not have his safety net tight end to lean on. This will cause problems offensively, and the Dolphins will be able to escape with a much-needed victory over their division rivals.

Buffalo Bills (-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars

This game does not exactly involve playoff contenders, but this would still be an upset according to the line. However, it is clear that the oddsmakers are simply late to the party to find out the Jaguars are not as bad as we thought. 

Jacksonville has won three games in a row and four of the last five after an 0-8 start. The squad is fighting hard under first-year head coach Gus Bradley, and there are clearly a lot of playmakers on both sides of the ball.

Meanwhile, the Bills have been fading fast with a pair of embarrassing losses in the past two games. They ended the Atlanta Falcons' five-game losing streak before falling by three touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

After rookie quarterback EJ Manuel threw four interceptions in the last game, it is hard to trust him to do much on the road in Week 15. The Jaguars should continue their recent success with another home win in this game.

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