Five Wins? Over Or Under?

In order to live up to Al Davis’s mantra ‘Just win baby,’ the Oakland Raiders will have to improve upon a 2008 campaign that garnered them just five victories. Throughout 2008 the franchise was plagued by sluggish quarterback play, injuries, and the mid-season departure of Lane Kiffin. The 2009 season presents even more challenges. In order to restore the glory to a once proud franchise, the Raiders must re-institute the commitment to excellence that was ever presence of Raiders teams past.

From a scheduling standpoint, the Raiders will have to endure the tough task of matching the NFC east in cross conference play. From top to bottom many believe this is the deepest conference in the NFC. Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, Clinton Portis, and Brian Westbrook are among the most dominant running backs in the league. This could be trouble for a Raiders defense that had the second worst run defense in the league last year allowing 159.7 yards per game. In my opinion, the Raiders do not have the personnel to match up against theses teams and will struggle to win any of these games.

In spite of this, Oakland has an opportunity to obtain wins in AFC west conference play. Once the deepest conference in the AFC, the AFC west has been down in recent years and provides the Raiders with opportunities to take advantage of the sluggish cycle. The Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs will both be adjusting to new quarterbacks and head coaches.

The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a 2008 season in which they went 2-14 in the regular season. Last year the Raiders split wins with the Chiefs in their two meetings. This year I expect the Raiders to win both match-ups against the new Chiefs outfit. In addition to new head coach Todd Haley and new quarterback Matt Cassel, the Chiefs will have to find a way to replace future hall of fame tight end Tony Gonzalez who was traded to the Atlanta Falcons in the off-season. The addition of Matt Cassel is an interesting move. Although Cassel put up big numbers in New England, he will have to prove he can do the same without the aide of Randy Moss and Wes Welker. One target that could benefit from the Cassel move is standout wide receiver Dwayne Bowe. However, with the departure of Tony Gonzalez I expect defenses to pay more attention to Bowe. The Raiders had the 10^th ranked pass defense in the league last year, and if all-pro cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha matches up against Bowe I do not fear the Kansas City aerial attack. This coupled with a sluggish Kansas City running game leads me to believe the Raiders could prevail in both contests in 2009.

The Denver Broncos are also a team I expect the Raiders to get a win against. Unlike Kansas City, I believe the Raiders will only get one victory against the Broncos at home in week three. If the Raiders can get solid play from JaMarcus Russell and their talented backfield I believe they can knock off a Broncos team that has had a tumultuous off-season.  The feud between new Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels and all-pro quarterback Jay Cutler reached a boiling point that resulted in the trade of Cutler to the Chicago Bears. This leaves the starting quarterback job in the hands of either Kyle Orton (acquired via Cutler trade) or former Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback Chris Simms. Neither of whom have proven to be a reliable option as starting quarterbacks. I expect the Raiders to take advantage of the inexperienced quarterback play of the Broncos in week three. However, I do not expect the young Raiders to fare well in week 15 at the high altitude of Mile High.

If this scenario unfolds as I predict the Raiders will have three wins on the board. The only two other places I see wins for the 2009 Oakland Raiders are against the Houston Texans in week four and the Cincinnati Bengals in week ten. During the 2008 season Oakland defeated Houston 27-16 at home. This year Oakland will travel to Houston and if their defense can limit the Matt Schaub to Andre Johnson connection I believe they can walk out of Houston victorious.

In order to achieve these five victories the Raiders will have to show signs of maturity. The big question surrounding the Raiders will be quarterback play. A savvy quarterback is a must for any NFL franchise. Will this be the year that JaMarcus Russell lives up to the hype? Or will NFL journeyman Jeff Garcia unseat Russell for the starting job. There is no question that Russell has all the physical tools necessary to be a big time quarterback but mental lapses have prevented him from showing off his strong arm. Whoever earns the job will have to adapt to head coach Tom Cable’s offensive scheme. An effective passing game should take pressure off the three-headed juggernaut backfield of Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden, and Michael Bush.

Fargas provides a good balance of speed and power but durability concerns have surrounded him since college. McFadden provides the most speed and agility of the three, and after a year of experience I expect McFadden to break out in 2009. Michael Bush was a star at Louisville but a broken tibia hampered his chances at becoming an NFL star. After rehabbing the entire 2007 season, Bush was finally healthy enough to carry the ball in 2008. Despite being stuck at third on the depth chart behind Fargas and McFadden, Bush was given a chance to carry the ball late in the season due to injuries. He made the most of his playing time and many expect him to get more carries in 2009. Defensively, Oakland must improve their run defense. Defensive end Kalimba Edwards was released in the off-season and rumors of a potential trade involving Derrick Burgess have been circulating. However to shore the defensive line the Raiders drafted defensive ends Matt Shaughnessy, Slade Norris, and Stryker Sulak.

At linebacker Kirk Morrison has continued to improve each season. In 2008 the Oakland native recorded 135 tackles good enough for 5^th in the league. Nnamdi Asomugha will once again hold down the secondary. In February Asomugha signed a three-year contract with the Raiders that will make him the highest paid defensive back of all time. In an era where athlete salaries are astronomically high, Asomugha is worth every penny. His size and speed combined with natural instincts make him a sight opposing quarterbacks do not want to see.

At the conclusion of the 2009 season I expect the Oakland Raiders to be 5-11. I feel the Raiders still have to resolve personnel issues. I do not see enough firepower on the offensive side of the ball to justify more wins. One thing I am worried about is the demeanor of the Raiders. When a team goes through a number of losing seasons it can change the mindset of a franchise. If the Raiders expect to win more games this season it will be up to the veterans to instill confidence in the younger players.