St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The total has stayed under in eight of St. Louis' last 11 games against the Cardinals, while St. Louis is on a 13-3 under run in the month of December.

Point spread: Cardinals opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 41.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 23.0-20.9 Cardinals

Why the Rams can cover the spread

St. Louis is much better than its record indicates. And even at 5-7, with there being so many losing teams still in the playoff hunt, the Rams are looking to make a run and challenge for the second wild-card spot.

They already beat Arizona once, so confidence is on their side in this game. They also catch the Cards after a road loss in Philly.

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

Revenge is the most obvious answer, as the Cardinals would love to extend payback for a season-opening loss in St. Louis. Though Arizona lost last week in Philly, it's still won four of its last five, has leapfrogged many in the NFC and is still challenging San Francisco for the No. 2 spot in the NFC West.

Smart Pick

The total looks very tempting here, and not just because of those trends mentioned earlier, but because of Arizona's improved play on defense. The Cardinals have held three of their last five foes to 14 or less points, while the Rams don't have that bad a stop unit either and would love nothing more than to slow the tempo anyway.

This one should stay low and the trends point the same way.

Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of St. Louis' last 11 games when playing Arizona           
• UNDER is 13-3 past 16 Rams games in December

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.